The voodoo of informed predictions

This morning I got a mail from a well-regarded source about the likely outcome of the bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (The MPC is a committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria) meeting coming up later in the day. The source argued that the MPR, LR and CRR would probably be left at 7.5%, 30% and 2% respectively. With a caveat that the prediction should be taken with a pinch of salt and she's not liable for any calamity that hits anyone who uses the prediction to make decisions. Come on! Even Jim Jones was better than this.

By the way, if you don't know what these acronyms stand for, don't bother; they mean absolute nothing, especially to the man on the street. They are some of the jargons we bankers put up to feel very self-important.

It would have been a story if the ratios weren't changed: I can't remember if any of the predictions ever made by my source came true. But I'm sure if Harold Camping's rapture hasn't taken place before the next MPC, my impeccable source would make another prediction and guess what, my own prediction is that she's going to be wrong, as usual.

The business world is replete with loads of analysts and self-styled experts but empirical evidence has shown we (too bad, seems I'm one of them) are not better than an army of random monkeys hitting away at the keyboards and a chance Shakespeare classic coming out. The publishing editors are thrilled and the monkeys have been given an advance for 4 more classics. You see, if you deal with a very large solution space (another jargon, another narcissistic comment) like I'm working on for my current project, anyone can get lucky.

The real disaster, of course, is confusing luck with expertise.

If you think I'm joking, read about what McKinsey and Company told AT&T in 1982.

Interesting bits on Nigerian governors

If you take a look at the current lineup of governors (those staying and new ones) you would say that education in Nigeria is about to be rescued from doldrums. That's only if you look at the lineup. Whether education would be granted a lifeline is a waiting game. And by the way, patience is a dangerous virtue.

Some dude put up an interesting data about these folks on Nairaland of recent. 31 (86%) of the governors have university degree and it's not that the rest skipped school; of the 3 (8%) who had HND from polytechnics, 2 topped it with additional Masters. 2 (6%) are ex-military top guns and someone did a railway course. Only one governor doesn't have a record but I can bet he must have had some school. And believe me, these guys are exposed: 8 (22%) have studied abroad, and 2 (6%) have PhDs. Of course Kayode Fayemi is the most educated, he had PhD from King's College London. He's my man any day.

What most did after school is entirely another kettle of fish: 9 (25%) learned politics from careers in civil service (now that sounds scary), of the 7 (19%) lawyers, 5 (14%) setup their private legal practice (fine-tuning election tribunal skills I guess). And talk is cheap in the south and lawyers do talk a lot, of the 7 lawyers; only 2 (6%) are from the north.

The two 2 (6%) ex-medicos had private hospitals. What became of their patients when they vied into politics is a question I would love to get an answer to. Apart from Peter Obi of Anambra who was chairman of Fidelity Bank Plc. all the other 3 (8%) ex-bankers are northern governors (I guess my chance of becoming a governor one day is next to nothing).

But like some people will tell you, facts are sometimes not reality. All these interesting bits could mean absolutely nothing. Notwithstanding, you can crank out your own insights using the data below or visit the Nairaland forum to vent your frustration.

State Governor Degree Career height Party
Abia Theodore Orji BA English (University of Ibadan) Career civil servant PDP
Adamawa Murtala Nyarko Navy Training (Britannia Royal Naval College) Vice Admiral (Nigerian Navy) PDP
Akwa Ibom Godswill Akpabio  LLB Law (University of Calabar) Director, Corporate Affairs/Legal Services (EMIS Telecoms) PDP
Anambra Peter Obi BA Philosophy (University of Nigeria) Chairman (Fidelity Bank) APGA
Bauchi Isa Yuguda BSc Economics (ABU), MBA (University of Jos), Chief Executives Programme (Lagos Business School) CEO (NAL Merchant Bank), CEO (Inland Bank) PDP
Bayelsa Timipre Sylva BA English Studies/Linguistics (University of Port Harcourt) Career politician PDP
Benue Gabriel Suswam LLB Law (University of Lagos), LLM Law (University of Jos), MA Public Administration (University of Abuja) Owner (Private legal practice) PDP
Borno Kashim Shettima BSc Agric Economics (University of Maiduguri), MSc Agric Economics (University of Ibadan) GM (Zenith Bank) ANPP
Cross River Liyel Imoke BA International Relations and Economics (University of Maryland, College Park), LLB Law (University of Buckingham), LLM Law (American University, Washington, D. C) Private business PDP
Delta Emmanuel Uduaghan MBBS Medicine, Diploma Anaesthesia (University of Benin) Owner (Private medical practice) PDP
Ebonyi Martin Elechi BSc Economics (Lovanium University of Congo) Career politician PDP
Edo Adams Oshiomhole Economics and Industrial relations (Ruskin College), Candidate (National Institute for Policy and Strategic Studies) President (NLC) ACN
Ekiti Dr Kayode Fayemi BA History(University of Lagos), MA International Relations (Obafemi Awolowo University), PhD War Studies (King's College, London) Director (Centre for Democracy & Development), Visiting Professor in African Studies (Northwestern University) ACN
Enugu Sullivan Chime LLB Law (University of Nigeria) Owner (Private legal practice) PDP
Gombe Ibrahim Dankwambo BSc Accounting (Ahmadu Bello University), MSc Economics (University of Lagos), Chartered Accountancy (ICAN) Accountant General of the Federation (Nigeria), FCA (ICAN) PDP
Imo Ikedi Ohakim BSc Business Administration and MSc Management (University of Lagos)  CEO (Alucon) PDP
Jigawa Sule Lamido Course in Railway Engineering (Permanent Way Training School, Zaria) Career civil servant PDP
Kaduna Patrick Yakowa BSc Social Sciences (Ahmadu Bello University) Career civil servant PDP
Kano Rabiu Kwankwaso HND Civil Engineering (Kaduna Polytechnic), PgD Water Engineering (Middlesex University), MSc Water Engineering (Lagborough University) Career civil servant PDP
Kastina Ibrahim Shema LLB Law & MBA (Ahmadu Bello University) Owner (Private legal practice) PDP
Kebbi Usman Dakingari BA Geography (Ahmadu Bello University) Career civil servant PDP
Kogi Ibrahim Idris LLB Law (University of Abuja) Private business PDP
Kwara Abdulfattah Ahmed BSc Chemistry (University of Ilorin) Senior Manager, Banking (GTB) PDP
Lagos Babatunde Fashola LLB Law (University of Benin) Managing Partner (K.O. Tinubu & Company), SAN CAN
Nasarawa Umaru Al-Makura BA Education (Ahmadu Bello University) Assistant Producer, News and Current Affairs (NTA Kaduna) CPC
Niger Dr Mu'azu Aliyu BA Education (Bayero University) PhD Public Policy and Strategic Studies (University of Pittsburgh) Career civil servant PDP
Ogun Ibikunle Amosun  HND Accountancy (Ogun State Polytechnic), MA International Finance (University of Westminster), Chartered Accountancy (ICAN Owner (Private accountancy practice), FCA (ICAN) ACN
Ondo Dr Olusegun Mimiko BSc Health Sciences Degree, MB & CH.B Medicine (Obafemi Awolowo University) Owner (Private medical practice) Labor
Osun Rauf Aregbesola HND Mechanical Engineering (Ibadan Polytechnic) Owner (Private engineering firm), Commissioner (Lagos State Ministry of Works and Infrastructure) ACN
Oyo Abiola Ajimobi BSc in Business Administration and Finance (State University of New York, Buffalo), MBA Operations Research and Marketing (Governor's State University) CEO (National Oil and Chemical Marketing Company) ACN
Plateau Jonah Jang Air Force Training (Military Training Schools, Nigeria/Abroad), B.Div Divinity (Theological College of Northern Nigeria) Air Commodore (Nigerian Air Force) PDP
Rivers Rotimi Amaechi BA & MA English (University of Port-Harcourt) Career politician PDP
Sokoto Aliyu Wamakko BSc Education (University of Pittsburgh) Career civil servant PDP
Taraba Danbaba Suntai BPharm Pharmacy (Ahmadu Bello University) Career civil servant PDP
Yobe Ibrahim Gaidam BSc Accountancy (Ahmadu Bello University) Career civil servant ANPP
Zamfara Yari Abubakar   Career politician ANPP

Disclaimer: Kindly take the validity of this data with a pinch of salt and don't use it to decide on your political career. And don't use it to tackle your governor either.