Category: Future

Read about Adedeji Olowe’s take about the future, futurism, and other technologies that could transform the everyday lives for better and sometimes for worse.

Cement versus Asphalt: The next bout could be in Lagos

The Cement Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (considering their acrimonious relationship, I wonder how they managed to form a group) and Business Day Newspaper are stumping for a conference to promote concrete as an alternative to road paving.

In Nigeria, even unborn babies know that our major issues are beyond electricity or lack of it (babies get cooked in the tummy from the heat) but also bad leaders, insecurity, bad roads and mosquitoes. At least if the roads are good, one can always make a speedy escape from aspiring Boko Harams.

When I say the roads are terrible, believe me, I’m wrong. We don’t even have roads. What we have is a spaghetti network of butchery stretching across the nation. Millions (I didn’t count) have lost their lives from unwarranted accidents.

While the nation points accusing fingers at the government for non-repairs, the few that manage to catch the rare fix get damaged pretty fast because the asphalt paving don’t last. This is where concrete comes in. Concrete last longer than bitumen, and have some additional qualities such as:

  • Concrete lasts longer with less need for maintenance and repair. In fact, studies show that concrete Interstate highways around the U.S. last about 2.5 times longer on average than asphalt Interstate highways.
  • Lower cost for vehicles. Heavy trucks get up to 20% better mileage on concrete.
  • Concrete is quiet.
  • Concrete is safer from better skid control, better visibility at night, etc.
  • Concrete is environmentally friendly as it doesn’t release foul chemicals.
  • Concrete can be made to be pretty snazzy with different colors and designs..

Concrete roads are common in North America (and some parts of UNILAG):  frat boys have been skidding on these roads without repairs since 1962. Can you beat that? The new asphalt overlay, funded by a World Bank loan on Ikorodu road didn’t even last 4 hours.

Typical road reconstruction for 2 lane 7 meter per lane road is about $450K per kilometer (if a dual carriage, multiply by 2 and if 3 lane dual carriage, by 3). Asphalt overlay will set a governor back by $133K per kilometer. A brand-new construction is a different kettle of fish, it cost about $1.5M per kilometer. By the way, should the Western Avenue reconstruction for 2 kilometers of Lagos Bahn cost N7B?

The interesting thing is if governments can adopt concrete, then there is going to be a real boon for cement makers. Will that drive up the price or down? That depends on capacity. But if prices inch up too much, you can be sure that road makers and others will soon hit the import market.

Either way, concrete road should give us longer lasting and better roads.

Introduction to Government Budgeting

The recently (and sadly) aborted subsidy strike has brought to fore how expensive (or is it wasteful) our government is – check this out:
Government is budgeting for the following:

PURCHASE OF COMPUTER & ACCESSORIES:
(I). 90 HP DESKTOPS @ N300,000 = N27,000,000;
(II). 20 HP PRINTERS @ N150,000 =N3,000,000;
(III). 60 NOS. UPS @ N55,000 = N3,300,000;
(IV). 75 NOS.HP LAPTOPS @ N314,000 = N23,550,000 AND
(V). 10 NOS. SCANNERS @ N190,000 = N1,900,000.

What manner of PC are we buying at 300K a pop? And HP laptops at 314K? Are these mobile servers?
It seems I’m in the wrong business 🙁

Genome on demand

The human genome was cracked some years ago by some mad hat scientists. That adventure took about 10 years although the completed map took another 3 years to show up. Guess what, same hack would take just a week if we are doing it today.

That was in 2000. Using the same extrapolation, your genome could be hacked and analyzed (and probably backed up on a USB drive, Lord helps you if it gets virus infected) in 19 minutes by year 2022 and 2 seconds in 2032.

Actually, those figures are wrong. I think at the rate at which we are going, our genomes could be analyzed online real time in 7 years. And with human models being simulated by some smart folks, vaccine and drug development would leave the realm of the lab into pure algorithms.

Maybe we would finally conquer cancer, engineer immortality, figure out teleportation and  finally do away with work. My vacation ends in 24 hours and I wonder why anyone hasn’t figured this out. Sad.