Why the rush into remittances won’t end well

You don’t need to go too far before you bump into the next remittance company. Practically every street corner of dear Africa is littered with them.

Every other startup is pivoting, slapping “cross-border payments” on their pitch decks, and making grand promises about disrupting how money moves into Africa. Doesn’t that remind you of the great fintechs of payments and crypto?

And honestly, I get it. The numbers are mouthwatering. Africa received over $100 billion in remittances in 2023, with Nigeria alone accounting for over $20 billion. For context, that is more than the annual budgets of most African countries. It is real money, moving in real volumes, and fintechs want in.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: most of the fintechs will fail. 

Remittances are a brutal business. If you think running a lending or payments startup is hard, try dealing with cross-border transfers, where margins are so razor-thin you could use them to shave every morning. And the customers? Don’t even get me started with them: they are obsessed with getting the lowest possible fees and extremely disloyal. Don’t mind that the cost of customer acquisition is ridiculous. 

All the customers are hoes! Regulators treat you like a ticking time bomb, and compliance mistakes can sink you overnight. Established players like Western Union, MoneyGram, and banks have been doing this for decades and will not give up market share easily. And if that was not bad enough, crypto and stablecoins could eventually make most remittance companies obsolete.

Yet, every month, a new fintech pops up claiming to “fix” remittances. Most of them will burn through investor money like Xmas crackers before realizing they were never in the game to begin with. 

If history has taught us anything, it’s that hype alone doesn’t keep the lights on. So, let’s talk about why this “boom” is not as promising as it seems and why only a handful of players will survive.

The market isn’t as big (or growing as fast) as you think

One of the biggest misconceptions driving the rush into remittances is the assumption that the market will keep growing indefinitely. People throw around the $100 billion remittance TAM (total addressable market) like it is an endless pot of money waiting to be scooped up. 

But that is not how this works.

First, Western nations, AKA the primary sources of remittance inflows are tightening immigration policies. Canada is cutting its immigration targets, the UK keeps tightening its visa rules, and the US is ramping up on deportation. With fewer migrants entering these economies, the number of Africans sending money home won’t explode the way many fintechs hope. After all, fewer migrants mean fewer people sending money home, and fintechs banking on a forever-growing market will hit a wall sooner rather than later.

Second, the diaspora population is not infinitely expanding. Unlike domestic African markets that grow naturally with population increases, remittance markets are largely fixed. There are only so many Ethiopians, Kenyans, Nigerians, or Ghanaians living abroad, and that number does not dramatically change year over year. This means that fintechs are fighting for a largely static customer base.

And then there is the economic factor. Many Western economies are struggling, and immigrants are feeling the pinch. Inflation, job cuts, and rising living costs mean people simply have less money to send home. If people struggle to afford rent, they are definitely not increasing how much they send home.

Competition is a bloodbath eroding margins

Even if the market were growing, the competition is cutthroat. Every major financial institution already has a remittance product. Banks, telecom operators, global payment networks, and dedicated money transfer operators all want the same customers.

The US-Nigeria, UK-Ghana, and UAE-Kenya corridors are flooded with everyone from legacy giants like Western Union and MoneyGram to fintechs like Chipper Cash, Flutterwave, NALA, and Sendwave.

And let’s not pretend remittance customers are loyal. They chase the lowest fees, that’s it. Your fancy UI and sleek onboarding do not matter if another app offers a 50-cent discount. The moment a competitor offers a slightly better deal, they are gone. Retaining customers in this space is a nightmare, and the cost of acquiring new ones keeps climbing.

Price wars are already a race to the bottom, and most startups will realize too late that they cannot survive long-term with razor-thin margins.

Meanwhile, customer acquisition is a nightmare. Facebook and Google ads are not cheap, and the only way to keep costs down is through word-of-mouth. But that only happens if your product is truly cheaper, faster, and more reliable than the competition. Spoiler alert. Most are not. Even referrals, the so-called holy grail of organic growth, can be a money pit. Heard of how one fintech burned over $5 million handing out $50 per referral? The dungeons are deep, and most startups don’t have the war chest to survive the fall.

Compliance will break you before you scale

If you think regulators are tough on payments, wait until you try moving money across borders. Fintech bros love talking about disruption until regulators show up. Remittances are heavily regulated, and for good reason. Fraud, money laundering, and terrorism financing are huge risks, and governments are not playing around. Nigeria’s CBN recently went after fintechs for KYC lapses. Kenya and South Africa are tightening AML rules. Western regulators have no patience for companies that don’t take Anti-Money Laundering (AML) seriously.

Regulatory compliance is not optional, and it is not cheap. The second you start scaling, you will need licenses across multiple regions, partnerships with banks, iron-clad AML processes, and round-the-clock compliance teams. Screw this up, and you will get fined or, worse, shut down overnight. 

And it is not just about following the rules, it is about affording to follow them. Compliance is expensive. Maintaining licenses, meeting reporting requirements, and implementing fraud prevention measures all cost money. Many fintechs underestimate just how much regulatory overhead will eat into their margins.

Lack of differentiation will lead to market saturation

Most remittance startups are offering the same thing: a mobile app, fast transfers, and low fees. But here is the problem; every competitor is promising the same thing.

Speed and price are no longer points of differentiation. Everyone is scrambling to provide instant transfers, and fees are already being cut to the absolute minimum. The only way to differentiate is by true innovation, and honestly, not many startups possess it.

If your only selling point is being cheaper or faster, you are already in trouble. Because when a bigger player, such as Stripe, Visa, or a deep-pocketed startup with VC backing, decides to undercut your rates, your entire business model crumbles.

The only way to build something sustainable is to go beyond remittances. The smart fintechs are bundling services like bill payments, lending, savings, and cross-border commerce. If your customer only opens your app when they need to send money, you are always one step away from losing them. Because at the end of the day, there are only so many bills to be paid. Sad, but true.

The real giants have not even started playing

Here is what should keep every remittance startup awake at night. The actual heavyweights have not fully entered the space yet.

Startups might get some initial traction, but in the long run, the big players will win. Global financial giants have the resources, regulatory expertise, and customer trust that startups simply cannot match.

Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge is a clear signal that serious competition is coming. Once a player like Stripe or PayPal decides to aggressively enter remittances, smaller fintechs will have little chance of competing. Apple and Google could flip the entire industry if they ever integrate remittances into Apple Pay or Google Pay.

And let’s not even get started on stablecoins and blockchain-based remittances. If USDC or another stablecoin achieves mainstream adoption in Africa, the fees everyone is fighting over today will disappear. Remittance startups that do not have a long-term plan beyond “send money cheaper” are playing a very dangerous game.

So, who will actually survive?

Most of today’s remittance startups will not be around in five years. But a few will figure it out. The ones that survive will be those who run an insanely efficient operation with no fluff, no excessive marketing burn, and just brutal cost discipline. Nail compliance from Day 1 because fixing KYC and AML issues after regulators show up is how you get shut down; Offer more than just remittances such as lending, savings, and business payments to deepen customer engagement; Find underserved corridors because while everyone is fighting over US-Nigeria, there are massive opportunities in intra-Africa remittances and less-explored regions.

Building a profitable remittance business is not impossible, but it is way harder than most fintechs think. If you are jumping in because you see a $100 billion market and assume there is easy money to be made, you are already behind.

The companies that survive will not be the loudest or the most hyped. They will be the ones with real discipline, regulatory muscle, and a strategy that extends beyond “let’s move money faster.”

Virtual accounts could be the next big thing in African payments

Let’s be real: innovation in Africa doesn’t get the recognition it deserves. The world tends to assume we’re just playing catch-up, but sometimes, we take an existing idea and run with it so effectively that we make it ours. Case in point: virtual accounts.

Now, virtual accounts aren’t a Nigerian invention. They’ve been around for years, quietly solving payment problems in other parts of the world. But Nigeria? We’ve taken this product and turned it into a payment powerhouse. Today, virtual accounts aren’t just another payment method here; they’re the payment method. Cards, POS terminals, even mobile wallets? All trailing behind.

If you’re reading this from a country like the US, Canada, or somewhere in Europe, you probably don’t get why virtual accounts are such a big deal. That’s because your payments ecosystem actually works. You’ve got working credit cards, smooth PayPal transactions, and Apple Pay that actually pays. Good for you.

But here in Africa and other parts of the world, where payment systems were stuck in the 2000s until recently, virtual accounts are a lifesaver.

So, what are virtual accounts, and why are they so important for Africa? I’ll explain, but first, let’s briefly discuss what problems virtual accounts solve.

The problem that a virtual account solves

For those unfamiliar, a virtual account is essentially a unique bank account number tied to a specific transaction or customer. It allows you to make payments via direct transfer — no cards, cash, or complicated hoops to jump through.

Why does this matter? Because in markets like Nigeria, payments via card or POS terminals are unreliable at best and a nightmare at worst. Imagine running a small business, and a customer wants to pay online. The card they’re using hasn’t been activated for online transactions. Or they don’t get the OTP on time. Or their card is expired, damaged, or lost. The transaction fails, and you’re left hanging.

Virtual accounts, however, eliminate drama by letting customers pay directly from their bank accounts — no cards, no delays, and no nonsense. It’s no surprise that businesses and individuals in Nigeria quickly embraced this method. 

What started as a convenient alternative has now become the dominant payment channel.

Why Nigeria became Africa’s poster child for virtual accounts

The funny thing about Nigeria’s success with virtual accounts is that it wasn’t inevitable. In fact, it’s a story of two unlikely players — Moniepoint (then TeamApt) and Providus Bank — taking a huge gamble on a product that didn’t seem necessary at first.

Back in 2019, Moniepoint had just been issued its switching license by the Central Bank of Nigeria, and Providus was still finding its feet as a regional commercial bank. The payments landscape was crowded with established players like Paystack, Flutterwave, and Interswitch. Virtual accounts weren’t on anyone’s radar. Yet, these two took a chance, and the results were transformative.

At the time, everyone was focused on card payments. But the reality was bleak. Out of 100 bank account holders, typically, only about 60 have cards. Many of those cards were inactive or damaged. OTPs and online activation processes were another layer of inconvenience. Virtual accounts provided a simple alternative: direct transfers.

Within a year, virtual accounts were everywhere, powering everything from e-commerce to utility payments. Today, they’ve cemented their place as the backbone of Nigeria’s payment ecosystem.

So, why hasn’t the rest of Africa caught on? And should they care

This is the question that keeps me up at night. Virtual accounts have proven themselves in Nigeria, so why aren’t they taking off across the rest of the continent?

Of the 54 countries in Africa, 26 currently support faster payments, making them compatible with virtual account technology. This foundation is significant, but adoption hasn’t taken off continent-wide. Why?

Part of the answer lies in how payments work in other African countries. Take East Africa, for example. Mobile money reigns supreme. Payments systems like M-Pesa have made it so easy to transfer money to anyone and anything that banks have taken a back seat.

But here’s the catch: mobile money isn’t always the best solution. It’s great for peer-to-peer transfers and small transactions but struggles with larger payments or complex business needs. That’s where virtual accounts could come in, offering a bridge between mobile money and traditional banking systems.

Another factor is infrastructure. Virtual accounts rely on robust interbank transfer systems, and while 19 African countries, as of January 2025, have these systems in place, the remaining 28 lag behind. For these regions, faster payments are a prerequisite for virtual accounts to thrive.

Why fintechs should bet on virtual accounts

Let’s call it like it is: African fintechs need a new growth path, and virtual accounts might just be the answer. The card market? It’s tapped out. Not everyone has cards; even if they do, the infrastructure to support them is shaky. Failed transactions, delayed authorizations — it’s a mess.

And don’t get me started on International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs). Once the golden child of fintech, the sector is now overcrowded. Margins are shrinking, competition is fierce, and any founder banking entirely on IMTOs is running on borrowed time.

But here’s where virtual accounts come in. Unlike some shiny new fintech trends, virtual accounts aren’t just theory. They’ve been stress-tested in Nigeria, and not only did they survive, they thrived. They’ve become the backbone of payments, handling everything from e-commerce transactions to utility bills with ease.

Of course, nothing worth doing comes without its hurdles. Virtual accounts rely on fast and reliable interbank transfers; a luxury not every African country has right now. Then there’s the regulatory elephant in the room. Some regulators might hesitate, not because virtual accounts are flawed, but because entrenched players like Mobile Money Operators (MMOs) will fight tooth and nail to keep their dominance.

However, these challenges aren’t insurmountable. Fintechs that lean into virtual accounts are positioning themselves for growth in a market hungry for innovation. If we’ve learned anything from Nigeria, it’s that virtual accounts don’t just work; they win. The rest of Africa is the next frontier, and anyone not paying attention is missing the plot.

A uniquely African solution

What I love about virtual accounts is how they’ve adapted to Africa’s realities. They’re not just a repackaged Silicon Valley solution. They’re built on the backbone of our banking systems, solving problems specific to our markets.

And let’s not forget the cost factor. For businesses, virtual accounts are often cheaper than card systems or mobile money. That’s a big deal in a continent where every naira, shilling, or rand counts.

During the Nigerian End SARS protests, which shockingly was 5 years ago,  the power of virtual accounts was evident. As financial restrictions tightened, many turned to virtual accounts for transactions, further cementing their role in Nigeria’s payments ecosystem.

If you ask me, virtual accounts are just getting started. Nigeria has shown what’s possible, but the real potential lies in taking this product across Africa and even beyond.

Imagine virtual accounts in countries where cross-border trade is booming but payment systems are lagging behind. Or in regions where mobile money has hit its limits, and large corporations like Safaricom, Naspers, and Dangote Industries, among others, need a more reliable alternative. The possibilities are endless.

Virtual accounts aren’t just a Nigerian success story; they’re a blueprint for how Africa can lead in payments innovation. Imagine their potential in countries where cross-border trade is booming but payment systems are lagging. Or in regions where mobile money is showing its age and businesses need a more reliable alternative.

The epidemics of ignorance

Ignorance and mediocrity are spreading like a virus combo, especially among professionals who think they’re good enough. If you’re coasting, you’re not growing. Stay hungry, embrace criticism, and dodge that mediocrity trap else the end isn’t that pretty!

Let’s talk about something that’s been bothering me for a while now. An epidemic that’s quietly spreading, affecting everyone in its path. And no, I’m not talking about the HMPV virus. I’m talking about the epidemic of ignorance. It’s a plague that runs rampant in young people, old people, and even business. And the worst part? Most people don’t even realize they’ve caught it.

It’s everywhere in Africa; most of us are walking around with half-baked knowledge and yet somehow thinking we’re doing just fine. The problem is this: we don’t know what good is.

You might think you’re on the right track, but here’s the hard truth: most people are too busy coasting along, thinking they’re good, without realizing how badly they are off the track. And if you’re serious about being the best in your field, this is something you need to fix.

Learning is a feedback loop, get comfortable with it

I’ll be honest, when you first start out, you know nothing. And that’s okay. When a baby learns to walk, they fall. A lot. But they get up and try again. They learn through feedback, through mistakes. This is the foundation of growth, and it’s something every professional needs to embrace. But then, once babies start walking, and then running, you badly wish for the days they were organically crippled. 

Sometimes, when I think of how ignorant I was as recently as when I worked at the Trium / Coronation Group, I cringe. I wonder why Aigboje didn’t fling me off then. One thing though, he never missed an opportunity to show me that I didn’t know shit. 🤣

So, feedback isn’t just about receiving praise for a job well done. It’s about constructive criticism that pushes you to get better. But here’s the thing: if you’re not getting feedback, you’re probably not growing. And if you’re the one giving it, you better make sure it’s honest, not just a pat on the back to avoid conflict.

The problem comes when you think you’re past the learning stage, when you start believing you’ve made it. That’s when feedback becomes harder to take, and when growth starts to stagnate. You have to stay consistently hungry.

The dangerous whisper of “good enough”

The worst thing you can do to yourself is buy into the lie that “good enough” is okay. Even though I don’t believe in any god, I’m damn sure the devil does whisper to some people. “You’ve done the work, you’ve hit your targets, why push harder?” Because here’s the truth: good enough is a trap. It’s comfortable, it’s safe, but it’s not where the magic happens.

What most people don’t realize is that “good enough” is a silent killer. The people who settle for good enough end up stuck in a cycle. They might not fail, but they certainly don’t thrive. They don’t take risks. They don’t learn. They don’t grow. They’re in the comfort zone, and that’s where they’ll stay until someone else eats their lunch.

The best in the game aren’t the ones who do “good enough.” They’re the ones who push, even when they don’t have to.

The “not knowing you don’t know” problem

This is where things get really tricky. It’s one thing to know what you don’t know — that’s the starting point of improvement. It’s another to be so blissfully ignorant that you don’t even realize you’re missing the mark. This is the “not knowing you don’t know” phase, and it’s the most dangerous one.

If you’re operating under the illusion that everything is fine, that your skills are sharp, and that you’ve figured it all out, you’re not learning. You’re just coasting. And I’ll tell you this: that’s where mediocrity starts to take root.

That’s why it’s so crucial to regularly evaluate your work. You can’t assume everything’s fine just because it’s working — you need to be aware of the gaps, the areas where you could improve, and the things you might be missing. Because if you don’t, trust me, someone else will.

Too many people fall into the delusion of being the absolute best, so they don’t bother to get better. And that cycle? It’s vicious. It’s a damn hamster wheel that keeps spinning, trapping people in the same place for years while they wonder why they’re still stuck.

Kirindin vs. Karanda: a tale of two mindsets

Let’s make it clearer with a story. Fictional, but very real in how they reflect the people I’ve worked with.

Karanda’s story: Karanda is a developer. Smart guy, top of his class, even. He’s been coding for years and does what he needs to get the job done. But there’s one problem: his code isn’t the best it could be. It works, but it’s clunky, inefficient, and if you really look under the surface, it’s a mess. When he’s called out, he argues: “It works, doesn’t it?” Feedback bounces off him like water off a raincoat. He doesn’t read, doesn’t learn, and doesn’t grow. A few years later, Karanda is stuck in the same role, wondering why his career hasn’t taken off as well as it should.

Kirindin’s story: Kirindin, on the other hand, started with less experience. But she’s different. Kirindin listens. She’s the first to ask for feedback, and she knows how to take it without getting defensive. Over time, she improves her skills—she learns, adapts, and gets better with each project. Kirindin doesn’t settle for “good enough.” She constantly pushes herself  because she’s obsessed with improving, and five years later, she’s leading a team, while Karanda is still arguing about why his buggy code “should work fine.”

The harsh reality: ignorance isn’t bliss

At Lendsqr, I’ve seen this epidemic firsthand. Tons of developers, designers, and other professionals have crossed my path. Smart people, no doubt. But the lack of self-awareness? Astounding. I’ve reviewed assessments where the gap between what was asked and what was delivered was staggering. When you point it out, instead of introspection, you get excuses or worse defensiveness.

It’s not that they’re bad people or even bad at their jobs. It’s that they don’t know what “good” is. And because they don’t know, they’re not striving to reach it.

When you don’t know what “good” looks like, you settle for mediocrity. You might think you’re doing fine, but in reality, you’re stagnating. And when you’re stagnating, someone else is out there improving, learning, and making strides. And that’s the person who gets ahead.

So, who’s to blame? The individual? Or all of us

Is it entirely their fault? Maybe not. Leaders (myself included) need to do a better job of defining what “good” looks like. Clear benchmarks, practical examples, and consistent feedback are essential. Without them, people end up chasing vague notions of success or even settling for mediocrity.

In fact, I think the leaders are the most to blame? Why? It’s natural to look up to leaders and role models. And when we can’t define what good means or put our feet down for quality to be met, we silently lead many souls astray. 

Nevertheless, at the end of the day, personal growth is just that: personal. The hunger to improve has to come from within. If you’re not reading, learning, and challenging yourself, you’re stagnating. And in most industries, stagnation is just a fancy word for falling behind.

Ignorance is a bigger problem than you think, break the cycle or be broken by it

Let’s zoom out for a second. Why does this even matter? 

Ignorance isn’t just a personal issue; it’s a collective one. Teams suffer when mediocrity is allowed to fester. Progress stalls, opportunities slip through the cracks, and everyone ends up working harder to compensate for those who aren’t pulling their weight.

Worse still, it’s contagious. A team member who constantly gets away with subpar work sends a message: “This is acceptable.” And once that standard is normalized, it’s a race to the bottom. 

The worst part? Clients and customers can smell mediocrity a mile away. When they lose confidence in your ability to deliver, it’s game over.

The epidemic of ignorance isn’t inevitable. It’s curable, but only if you’re willing to confront it head-on. 

Ask yourself: Do I know what “good” looks like in my field? Am I actively seeking feedback, or just coasting on past successes? When was the last time I truly learned something new? If your answers make you uncomfortable, good. That’s the first step to getting better. As for me, I’ll keep fighting this epidemic one conversation, one critique, and one post at a time.

10 predictions for digital payments in 2025

Congratulations on making it out of 2024, as it was quite an interesting year in which we didn’t know if battling the devil was easier than battling the economy. But as long as there’s life, there’s hope, which is why humans like me never stop the useless endeavor of predicting the future.

Take everything you read here with a pinch of salt; most won’t come to pass. But then, what if?

After all, to err is human and to predict, is human! 

Let’s dive into them.

#1 CBN will lose the cash war again

Like a fighter who wouldn’t just lay flat on the ground; the Central Bank of Nigeria continues to fight agents and cash with many rules and tweaks. But as someone who knows that cash has many tricks up its sleeve, it will give the CBN another sucker punch. 

Why would CBN even lose what seems to be an easy fight?

Because it’s fighting the wrong battle. The CBN is fighting the symptoms instead of the root cause – people need cash to make payments and as long as digital payments have quality and security issues that the CBN isn’t addressing holistically, agents will run rings around the CBN every single time. If the POS is limited to N100,000 per day for transactions, expect agents to migrate to mobile apps for the same thing. Who will catch them?

#2 CBN will (finally) win the fraud war

2024 was the year that, at least, looking back from today, fraud has grown up in Nigeria. Nobody seems to be able to tame it because frankly, there has been zero consequences for gatekeepers. 

While I don’t think we should be blaming the victims, the banks and large fintechs’ apathy to quality KYC and CDD is a big reason for this mess. For a while, people used to ask “what have these fintechs got on the CBN guys?”. The thing was a proper kayefi. 

Well, that was so until the CBN rolled out the big sticks against Opay and others. Guess what, Opay and Moniepoint are moving from careless to having some of the best KYC processes in town. 

With that in place, expect CBN to take the discipline to the entire classroom and rampant fraud could be a thing of the past. Let the church shout hallelujah! 

#3 Moniepoint as a commercial bank won’t happen in 2025 

2 years ago, I predicted that Moniepoint would become a commercial bank and in 2024, tons of outlets ran the stories of this happening in 2025. 

Maybe this is the year they get to do it? Maybe not. 

It made sense 2 years ago but with increasing regulatory demands, CBN’s crazy CRR regime I don’t think will happen this year. Knowing that becoming a commercial bank isn’t like buying an MFB by the roadside; it would take a while to meet CBN’s stringent requirements and for mostly first timers, it’s going to be one hell of a ride.

#4 Virtual accounts get regulated

Virtual accounts have been the best invention out of African banking in the last 7 years. The Nigerian banks nailed it. But our fraudsters nailed it even better 😲. 

Virtual accounts are the payments invention in 10 years.

As virtual accounts become the trillion-naira juggernauts, it is impossible to outlaw but with it being the best toolkit for fraudsters due to poor KYC, CBN will finally bring out an official regulation to delineate what you can use virtual accounts for and minimum KYC requirements to be added to it. Don’t be scared; the regulation wouldn’t kill this baby!

#5 Agent networks will evolve beyond payments and fraud

Agents are the most beloved hated groups in Nigeria today and it’s not difficult to see why. They help you with quick cash and also shaft you in the process. They are the destination for most of the fraud that happens in the banking ecosystem but yet, they keep all of us sane. 

As the CBN and other stakeholders continue to tweak the policies to fight fraud, networks such as Moniepoint, Opay, and MTN, constantly tired of being vilified, would start evolving what you can do at an agent’s point of service beyond cash. What about getting a personal loan? Or taking delivery? Or verifying your NIN and BVN? Or this? Or that? This would work as long as the agent can make a fat margin!

#6 Open banking will go live (I’m always wrong, maybe one more time?)

Ogun Lakaye told me that if I predict this one more time, he will push the CBN to make open banking commence. This time around, I have a strong feeling that open banking will finally go live. I mean I rubbed the genie bottle, and it felt really warm. How could I be wrong?

#7 Virtual accounts go to Africa

Tons of Nigeria fintechs have made forays into Africa – LemFi, Flutterwave, Paystack*, the list goes on. Most have gone on to rule with money remittances and a few like Paystack have had a decent success with payments with cards. 

But if you stepped back and asked, why wouldn’t the best thing in Nigeria be exported to these countries? 

As the margins continue to dry up and the need to grow continues to put pressure; expect Nigerian fintechs, or startup founders from other African countries who have made more than enough trips to Nigeria, to launch virtual accounts.

#8 Someone cracks contactless payment 

Contactless payments are next to godliness; just tap and go (to heaven, I guess). I honestly believe that if done well, it can 3x payments in Nigeria and other countries easily. 

For contactless to work, it must be super-fast, work offline, and not ruin the banks or fintechs. 

This has been the Golgotha where all the nice ideas are dying. However, I expect some of these smart African fintechs to break through this year. After all, where will the next growth potential come from?

#9 Nigerian startups start leveraging global opportunities  

The Nigerian economy has been shattered to pieces although there some flashes of light are appearing at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully not from barreling trains. 

As the economy bites, I expect some Nigerian startups to stop trying to survive but switch into using the cheaper cost of service delivery into a competitive advantage. And those who care about quality would succeed.

#10 Remittance fintechs stroll into hot soup

The margins on typical fintech services are now so thin my barber considers it super dangerous using it to shave me.

So, what are they doing?

Practically every fintech is either in remittances or planning to do so in 2025. Most of them will fail.

Until they discover that the remittance business has more minefields than the border of Ukraine and Russia. This means many of them will not be vigilant enough when bad actors use them to ferry fraud and terrorism money with regulators from the US all the way to Abuja fining most of them; sacking some of them; and a few might even get jailed. 

I mean, how many remittance businesses can Africa support?

Wondering what happened the previous years and the predictions? Read about my takes for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024.

CBN is losing the cash scarcity war: here’s how it can win

There’s been growing tension between the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and commercial banks over the lingering cash scarcity, with accusations of mismanagement and even conspiracy flying around. Banks on the other hand, are dragging CBN for the shortage.

Things came to a head when the CBN threatened to penalize any bank caught mishandling the Naira a whopping ₦150 million. Enough cheddar to build a small estate in Iragbiji in Ondo State.

The cash crisis created long queues at banks and ATMs. Then if and when it’s your turn to get cash, you’re limited to just N5,000 – N10,000. I mean, what can you even do with such an amount?

Naturally, there’s a lot of frustration about the situation. Nigerians want the CBN to hang someone on the cross for this even though Jesus reportedly died for our sins 2000 years ago.

Now, while the issues are very real, I think the CBN is fighting a battle it simply can’t win and would only get its nose bloodied in the process. Why? Because it’s fighting a shadow!

But before I explain, let me tell you a little story.

Telecoms already taught us a little about scarcity 

Let’s take a quick trip down memory lane; back to Nigeria’s telecom sector about 25 years ago.

Back then, telephone lines were even scarcer than Naira notes today. There were only  400,000 phone lines for a country with over 100 million people.

Getting connected wasn’t just a matter of walking into a store or clicking a few buttons online like we do today. You needed personal connections and a bit of luck to be able to secure a NITEL line then. And even for those who were successful, the service was very expensive. The Minister of Communications at one time, Tajudeen Olanrewaju, once quipped that “the telephone wasn’t for the poor”.

But then GSM came along and completely changed the game. It revolutionized the market, made the old way of doing things obsolete, and made phone lines accessible to everyone, including my dog.

Scarcity isn’t a new or foreign phenomenon. But we have to do things differently to get out of the rut we’re in.

The real problem isn’t cash; it’s payments

Scarcity always creates arbitrage opportunities and people will naturally find ways to profit from limited resources, whether it’s forex, cash, or anything else in short supply. We see it happen all the time.

Take super-agents, for example. We can’t deny that they’ve played a pivotal role in taking financial services to the next level but they’re charging premiums to provide access to cash. Is it wrong? Definitely. But is it surprising? Absolutely not. They’re simply responding to the systemic gaps by filling a need the system itself hasn’t addressed. 

Meanwhile, according to the popular Yoruba proverb, the CBN is out here carrying an elephant on its head while trying to catch a cricket with its toes. It’s dangerous and they could trip on some Nigerian banana peel.

Instead of fixing the real issue by addressing the root cause of payment challenges, the CBN is focused on the wrong battle; cracking down on banks and super agents, threatening them with fines, and blaming inefficiencies at the branch level. It’s a futile effort and a big distraction.

And even if the CBN somehow “wins,” it’s a pyrrhic victory. The root problems would remain untouched, and the cash scarcity chaos would continue.

Why?

Because people aren’t hoarding cash for the fun of it!

They’re not chopping it up to cook jollof rice so they could drag Ghana on Twitter (AKA X)—they need it to buy food, pay for their commute, or settle small daily transactions. Cash is just a medium. 

The real question is why are people going through so much stress looking for cash just to make payments when there are alternative methods? That’s what needs to be addressed.

The truth is, electronic payments simply aren’t a viable alternative for many Nigerians right now. Transaction speeds are too slow to support real-time payments. Imagine waiting one to two minutes for a transfer to be complete while trying to pay the woman selling plantain in a busy market, where you still have 49 other customers lined up behind you. Trust me, someone is going to swear for your fada if you don’t get out of the way. Nigerians can be an angry lot!

It’s impractical, and for a system that needs to scale, this kind of delay is a dealbreaker.

Fraud protection is another major issue. Victims of fraudulent transactions often find themselves stranded, with little to no recourse. Even when banks report fraud cases to each other, it rarely yields the desired results. This lack of accountability has bred widespread distrust in the system and people are understandably hesitant to fully embrace electronic payments. While the CBN has commenced enforcements on some fintechs of recent; it’s late, too targeted, and not comprehensive enough to fight fraud.

Then there’s the cost. For low-value transactions, the fees just don’t match. Paying ₦10 in transfer charges for transactions as small as ₦50 – ₦100 to pay for pure water or a wrap of garri is neither sustainable nor reasonable. So, cash remains the cheaper and more practical option for many Nigerians, despite the challenges associated with accessing it.

Here’s how the CBN can resolve the cash crisis for good

Right now, the CBN seems to have enough energy to pull off what’s needed, especially with Cardi B at the helm.

First, they need to focus on transaction speed. Think about how speed changed the game in photography. Once we had fast-loading photos, it opened the door for videos. The same applies to payments. Faster transactions can unlock new opportunities and drive adoption. After all, faster transactions is how Opay became the largest digital bank in Nigeria.

The CBN should set national transaction speed standards, starting with a 15-second benchmark in the first year and then tightening it to 5 seconds within three years. They could even tie incentives to transaction speeds. Bankers love incentives. Or, if that doesn’t work, CBN could do what usually works in Nigeria and apply some  pressure and threaten banks to invest in the infrastructure needed to achieve this.

Next, CBN needs to seriously deal with the fraud issues for everyday Nigerians. It’s time to fix the system. They should implement a centralized fraud reporting platform—not the one NIBSS supposedly has that nobody uses—but something easily accessible to fintechs and Nigerians. Banks should also be mandated to refund fraud victims unless they can prove they followed proper KYC protocols. And to make things faster, they should create an effective inter-bank communication process to handle fraud cases swiftly. This is so critical because fraudsters are raping the digital payments space to death and only a few things are being done about it.

The CBN should also reduce costs for small transactions. Transactions below ₦10,000 should be free. The sector can afford it. It’s easy to propose this though; after all, it’s not my revenue that would fund it 🤣.

Here’s why it’s worth the effort  

This approach has significant long-term benefits. For starters, locked funds stay within the banking ecosystem, improving transparency. Banks would no longer need to ask people funny questions about money movements because they’d have a clearer view of the velocity of money.

Moving payments online also reduces the need for physical cash, cutting down costs related to printing, transporting, and securing money. That frees up funds for building better digital payment infrastructure.

Most importantly, it builds trust in the financial system. When transactions are fast, secure, and reliable, people are more likely to embrace banking and other financial services fully, instead of hoarding cash or relying on informal networks. 

And with better visibility into money flows, the CBN can make smarter policies instead of fighting shadows. 

The CBN needs to make big changes for big impact 

Super agents who are currently benefiting from cash scarcity and arbitrage might feel the pinch at first, but they won’t be left out of the game. As digital transfers gain traction, there’s a real opportunity for them to pivot and earn through legitimate transaction fees and expanded services.

In fact, the CBN has already laid some groundwork with its recent Circular on Cash-Out Limits for Agent Banking Transactions. It’s a step in the right direction but it’s not enough. To make this work, they’ll need to double down on reforms and strengthen the system.

First, they need to address the BVN gaps and protect people. The CBN should mandate periodic revalidation of BVNs, say, every 5 years, to keep records accurate and deactivate outdated or fraudulent accounts. It’s also a chance to show the bank tellers that I’m now a silver fox 🌚. To make this convenient, Nigerians should be allowed to revalidate their BVNs at any bank, not just their own bank/branch. This ensures broader compliance without adding unnecessary wahala.

Second, they need to collaborate better with banks. The CBN needs to set clear goals and timelines for infrastructure upgrades, ensuring banks prioritize transaction speed and security. Smaller banks, in particular, may require technical and financial support to meet these standards, and the CBN should be able to coordinate something for them. The Nigerian tech ecosystem is more than capable of helping banks scale with infrastructure.

Away from the banks, the public also needs to be adequately engaged. Awareness campaigns to emphasize the benefits of digital transactions, especially in comparison to the cost of withdrawing cash, will be critical. They also need to address fears about fraud via digital channels to build confidence in the system and drive adoption.

This is what the CBN needs to do to turn the current challenges into long-term gains and to create a payment system that’s faster, safer, and allows super agents to thrive without exploiting scarcity.

This is the version of the fight the CBN actually has a real chance of winning—and this time, without getting its nose bloodied.