It’s an interesting time to be alive, and 2026 will be a year where markets grow, regulators growl, and bad belle people might not have a chance to crow.
Here are my predictions for digital payments in 2026. Who am I to even make these predictions? Well, I’ve been balalawoing for about 10 years and I mostly miss my predictions, so I guess I should try again.
#1 Stablecoin implodes in America and takes Africa down with it
Moving money in and out of Africa is a bitch of work. Many times when customers need to pay me or Lendsqr, it takes days, during which I have found myself homeless, broke, and living under Oshodi Bridge.
Stablecoins solve this problem. But since Trump legalized crypto, what he failed to do is download common sense or solve greed. One or two stablecoin providers will take on more than their reserves, and things will crash.
Unfortunately, while Westerners have safety nets, millions of young African professionals and SMEs will see their stablecoin balances disappear into space. Ekun ma po repete.
#2 Massive payments growth as fraud says goodbye
With fraud no longer a major distraction following CBN strict regulatory interventions and consumer trust being rebuilt, fintech giants and wannabes will return to massive growth and innovation. The market could double this year alone.
What’s driving the growth? Last-mile payments, consumer credit, and the usual suspects.
#3 CBN finally wins cashless
Someone at the CBN finally understood the logic of cashless. Instead of punishing deposits, it shifted penalties to the right behavior: 3% when you kiss cash too many times.
As more money goes into banks but becomes expensive to take out, the default behavior becomes digital. The CBN is also not keen on creating ₦2k, ₦5k, and ₦10k notes. Cashless galore.
#4 Tax evidence drives consumer and SME lending
The days of salary workers and SMEs lying about income to get loans they can’t or won’t repay are over. With the NRS getting more serious about tax collection, tax records become a verifiable signal of income for salaried workers and revenue for companies.
Expect data providers to start plugging this in within weeks.
#5 Nigerian government codifies a national credit policy
Tinubu understands credit and has pushed significant policies to make it available to students, SMEs, and others. He has also gotten us more indebted. If the loans are productive, who cares?
However, Nigeria lacks a cohesive national credit policy. Given how strategic the president has been on tax and fiscal reform, this could happen before the year ends.
#6 CBN opens GSI to non-bank lenders
With or without a national consumer credit policy, the CBN will want to extend its headmaster game by allowing non-bank lenders access to loan recovery via GSI.
It serves the CBN well. Their data guys won’t need to cook numbers about credit in Nigeria because they’ll see everything. Win-win-lose. The losers, obviously, are chronic debtors.
#7 Moniepoint and OPay go commercial
Rumors of Moniepoint going commercial have been around longer than December got detty. Many factors are probably driving this: eyeing the extra money in traditional core banking, and wanting to sit at the table of elders.
OPay has always liked operating strategically without a face. But I suspect they’ve become so big that the CBN will have no option but to ask them to upgrade licenses and governance for better oversight.
#8 Invoice factoring and discounting explode
With e-invoicing now compulsory and live for most companies, invoice factoring and discounting will explode significantly.
If you don’t know what those terms mean, please use ChatGPT or Google. I’m tired of explaining.
#9 Many try to fix direct debit, fail
Direct debit is supposed to solve loan repayments and recurring payments. NIBSS promised heaven but is currently serving hell.
Some fintechs will try to fix this by launching their own direct debit systems, but they’ll face the same issues that screwed NIBSS: integrating with banks one by one is brutal, and many banks are not serious about integration.
You might be doing Happy New Year 2036 in some bank server rooms and still not be done.
#10 PayPal succeeds despite backlash from spurned Nigerians
Everyone is dunking on PayPal for coming to Africa after previously shitting on us. Guess what: the average African doesn’t remember the old insult or care.
They will sign up, use PayPal, and enjoy a significantly better service than many African alternatives.
Sad.
Wondering what happened the previous years and the predictions? Read about my takes for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.