If CBN wants cashless, it should #maketransferfree

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) directive on cashless is necessary and beneficial in the long run but success depends on CBN’s actions to support and secure the system.

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) directive on cashless is a direction the country needs, which I support 100%. Some may argue that this impacts the poor and the bottom of the pyramid negatively – yes, it does, at first, but in the long run, this is significantly superior to cash and would benefit everyone.

But why would I support an approach many have termed poorly thought through and echoes a military approach that sets many ordinary Nigerians on edge? It’s because sometimes you cannot fling out the baby with the bath water.

Because of the impact on many Nigerians and the poorly received approach by the CBN, several Nigerians are pushing that CBN should suspend the new cashless policy. This is a poor thought, and it’s as flawed as asking Nigerians to stop making phone calls and start shouting to get the attention of their neighbors.

To make cashless successful and for everyone to reap the benefits and growth potential, sacrifices are expected of everyone. And we know that these sacrifices are not trivial.

Of course, the CBN is asking everyone to sacrifice a lot, but what are the CBN and the bankers giving in return? 

This is where it gets sketchy and unfairly lopsided. It’s also where the success of cashless is in doubt. If the poor feel taken for a ride and disadvantaged, everyone will find a way to sabotage the cashless policy. 

When you consider the CBN’s argument that this would curb kidnapping (a rich man’s problem) and vote buying (a poor man’s opportunity), the chance of success for CBN is severely curtailed. 

Cashless would never curb kidnapping – if my loved one were kidnapped, I’m not sure I’m ready to lose them because I don’t want to pay the 5% extra charge on the cash ransom. A politician doesn’t care about the 10% on the N1b he will use to buy votes. The original N1b wasn’t his to start with.

After all, when the Naira fell badly to the USD, the poorer exchange rate was never a problem when politicians bought USD to get votes.

So what exactly can the CBN do? There are three immediate solutions.

CBN should make the electronic transfer free for everyone. But to block abuse, there should be a limit and a monthly cap. Why would this work? It’s simple – the poor, most affected by the cashless, and the elites (the CBN and bank executives), think about money and value differently. Time is expensive for the executives, so paying N50 for the transfer is nothing to them. But for the poor, every kobo counts. They cannot understand why they must pay N50 for a transfer when they can walk to the market and use cash without spending extra. 

The CBN should go on a massive campaign to woo Nigerians and not talk down on them. Many Nigerians don’t trust the financial system. They think it’s rigged against them for the benefit of bankers. Many Nigerians are also scared of going to the banks because banks are formal and bankers look scary sometimes. 

To make this work, the CBN should create relatable ads and public service announcements using influencers that can cut through the noise and let everyone know the CBN means good.

The CBN should also enforce liability shifts to the banks. Why would this work? Most Nigerians that would be forced to go cashless are digital neophytes, which means the bad actors will take advantage of them. The bankers are the ones that control digital payment services, and it’s their sole responsibility to make it safe and secure for all their customers. Maybe when bankers start paying for these frauds, they will put in more effort to keep everyone safer.

In conclusion, the new cashless policy by the CBN and bankers is a rare opportunity for the Nigerian financial ecosystem to grow and for financial inclusion to bring benefits to Nigerians. But without the bankers and CBN making transactions free (and cheaper) for Nigerians and taking other measures to assuage Nigerians about the benefits of this initiative, it would fail. 

This chance is too good to be lost. Let CBN #maketransferfree.

10 Predictions for Digital Payments in 2022

In 2022, Nigeria’s fintech sector will see WhatsApp possibly entering payments, MTN’s PSB dominating, free transfers boosting financial inclusion, and open banking disrupting APIs. FX transactions may shift to P2P, NIN could replace BVN, lending heats up with big banks joining, and new unicorns emerging. Visa might buy Interswitch, and Mastercard could acquire Etranzact, reshaping Nigeria’s financial landscape.

It’s 5 years since I’ve been shilling my predictions, and here again, are my top 10 predictions for 2022. Although, if any of them comes through, I owe you a beer.

As always, even though nobody pays attention, these predictions are largely educated guesses being that I have an advantage of seeing a lot from the wobbly perch on which I sit. But then, my candid advice is to take them with a grain of salt.

Now let’s dive into what Oracle has predicted for the coming year.

#1 A global giant comes to play. I will pay you with WhatsApp

Stripe came in 2020 to buy Paystack but not to play. But in 2022, my blurry eyes see a global player coming to play big time. But then why would a global player come? The market is hot as hell; alternative payments methods such as virtual accounts have proven to be very successful; API players like OnePipe and Mono are doing very well and shipping data around like smugglers, and lastly, open banking would go live once the standards are approved by the CBN. There is simply no better time to be here. My bets are on WhatsApp to come back with payments within their chat app. WhatsApp isn’t a stranger to payments; they have started, albeit with limited success, in Brazil and India.

#2 MTN launches PSB. Only a few super agents are left standing. Top 5 banks on notice

I predicted that MTN would get its license and they did. Give me a round of applause! Karl, the CEO of MTN, is a ruthless executioner and following the spanking that banks gave him last year on USSD, he has more than enough incentives to do a good job. And he will; never keep Karl behind your back. MTN would drive its PSB so hard and super agents so amazingly, they would quickly suck the oxygen out of the market. The prediction here is that I expect a rapid decimation of the super agents when MTN’s PSB goes live. I’m super curious about who Karl would anoint as the CEO of the bank though; I smell some ex-orange colored EDs who know all the tricks of the traditional banks and where dead bodies can be buried.

Disclosure: I bought some MTN shares and I’m rooting for them.

#3 Transfers become free. Financial inclusion becomes a reality

I don’t know if this is a prediction or a wish list because even if it doesn’t want to come to pass by itself, I’m going to devote part of my energy to it in 2022 to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the premise is simple – make transfers below a certain amount free for everyone and you have a good chance of bringing financial inclusion to every Nigerian. CBN did this for ATMs and it was a success (bankers hated it though) and they may be tempted to do it next year too. The last time the cost of transfer went down to N10, the market jumped like drops of water inside the hot oil.

#4 Open banking goes live. API players are shaken off the tree

CBN has been cooking this for so long it’s almost burning on the stove. Finally, the standards are approved, released, and banks are mandated to implement them in 10 days 😁. Now, open banking is significantly more comprehensive, faster, and safer than the APIs being sold by my friends. And because only licensed players would be allowed, the market may shake some old API providers out of the market the way mobile internet killed business centers (if you were born after I graduated, please ask your uncle).

Disclosure: I’m a Trustee at Open Banking Nigeria and deeply connected to the regulatory efforts to spin up open APIs in Nigeria.

#5 FX goes the crypto way. P2P FX transactions power investment apps. CBN is upset

CBN is like the financial Thor of Nigeria, its hammer can smash the densest head. It came after crypto earlier in the year, but they survived and went underground where no hammers can touch them. The hammer then came after FX jugglers; just ask what happened to abokifx.com. But we need FX or how do I pay my subscriptions or buy Tesla shares? As the need for FX has refused to go away, some players may borrow a leaf from the p2p play that saved crypto in Nigeria. Could that, in one move, be the end of CBN’s control of retail FX in Nigeria? While some investment apps may have gotten an injunction to prevent CBN from locking their accounts up, trust them to throw a party if p2p can save their business model.

#6 NIN dethrones BVN as the ID of choice. CBN’s fear about data comes true

CBN is super worried about how and what fintechs are doing with BVN; anyone with half a brain would be worried at how easy BVN data can be gotten and misused. So, they got NIBSS to clamp down on BVN; unfortunately, there are no better alternatives for fintechs. Well, NIN came along with fresher data and wider coverage. The only problem is NIN being government property means data security and privacy may be poor. Soon, a major breach happens and DSS is called to fish out fintech founders.

#7 Lending becomes hot. Bigger banks jump in. Bigger banks get shocked.

Nigeria has a N74 trillion credit gap which is flashing eyes at prospective lenders. Even though many lenders have taken bad advantage of borrowers so much that even regulators have to weigh in, the demand for consumer and SME credit continues to surge. At least 5 top 10 banks, being the jealous type, would jump in without looking, but with disastrous consequences. They will fail because their loans would be packed like corporate bank credits.

Disclosure: I’m deeper into lending tech than the Marianna trench. And Sterling (Spectra), Access (QuickBucks), and FCMB (Credit Direct) have been doing consumer credit at scale before my last child was born.

#8 Market goes super-hot. New unicorns are born. Old players die

2021 was a year of growth for the fintech market and the conditions for a hot 2022 have been laid down – #1 the API business model gets proven (Mono and OnePipe raised $19m between themselves); #2 CBN released tons of licenses for new payments providers; #3 virtual account became a prime payments method, and #4 the folks that raised cash must show investors growth. What do you think the torrid combination of this means for next year? The market becomes competitive like crazy; fintechs would use dollars as weapons to snap talents and do marketing; larger and ballsy fintechs may start doing their APIs directly, bypassing Mono and others. When the smoke clears, the battlefield would be full of dead bodies. But I see the new players being victorious and crowned as unicorns. And the older players? Any of them born before 2015 is likely to slink into oblivion.

#9 Visa buys Interswitch

I’m predicting this for the third year in a row; maybe if I say it enough it would happen. Why do I think so? It just makes sense for various reasons; Naira is at all-time cheap and Interswitch fundamentals is anchored on Naira which makes them cheaper and because they are a grown-ass fintech, they can’t enjoy the 20x EBITDA multiple that smaller and younger fintechs use for their valuation. But then, they are a behemoth, they control 90%+ of ISO card traffic in Nigeria. And sweet old Ms. Visa owns 20% of them to start with. Meanwhile, Mastercard continues to kick Visa’s teeth with their Nigerian market dominance and even the previously smacked Verve is having a resurgence. Therefore, it makes sense for Visa to buy the Switch and just make Verve become Verve by Visa (Ve by Vi, how does that even sound?) But the kicker? Some of the long-term investors are itching to return funds to their limited partners so they would be more than happy to sell to Visa and bid goodbye.

#10 Mastercard buys Etranzact

This prediction is tied to number 9 like the way my daughters are tied to my surname. Once Visa buys the Switch, Mastercard would have to find their way out of there faster than a cat would slink off a hot plate. Of the bunch of payments processors hanging around Nigeria, only Etranzact remains a viable option for Mastercard as they have their servers in every place that’s called a bank. Most of the institutional owners would gladly receive a 3x premium.

Wondering what happened the previous years and the predictions? Read about my takes for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Disclosure: I own some bits of Etranzact but if the multiple isn’t at least 5x, nobody should talk to me.

10 Predictions for Digital Payments in 2021

Now for the fourth year, here are my predictions for digital payments in 2021 with the hope that it offers a better time for everyone than 2020. You probably have heard it a thousand times; 2020 was a shitty year for almost everyone except for technology and especially payments.

Those worst hit by 2020, apart from the folks who lost their lives (may their soul rest in peace even if I don’t believe in the afterlife), are pundits like me whose predictions were thoroughly trashed.

But despite this, we all still look forward to these fintech predictions for 2021; who am I not to serve you a hot dose of fiction wrapped as facts?

Let’s do it!

#1 Visa buys Interswitch for $800m

Earlier last year, before Covid spanked everyone, I laid out an argument that Visa could buy Interswitch. Despite the global pandemic and its attendant economic fallouts in Nigeria, the thought has only become stronger in my head. The reason is that Interswitch has a knack for announcing its massive valuation, just as Naira wants to go bananas. Unlike what everyone believes, Mitchell Elegbe doesn’t own Interswitch; the real owners, knowing that the Switch is hooked to a downward sliding Naira, would be hitching for a payday. Visa, forever married to Nigerian transactions, already owns 20% of the Switch; Naira is now so cheap (if you earn in USD). Plus, the fundamentals of Interswitch are still pretty strong, while not buy it on promo?

#2 Mastercard buys Etranzact

Only a fool would let its most significant competitor decide its fate. If Visa bought Interswitch, and Interswitch runs nearly 100% of Mastercard’s transactions in Nigeria. You can be sure the not-so-foolish humans of Mastercard would probably take their traffic somewhere else. Only Etranzact fits the profile of a replacement due to its basket of licenses.

Disclosure: I own a bunch of Etranzact shares. If this pans out, I’m gonna buy a Maserati.

#3 CBN caves in as MTN gets a PSB license

I made this call last year and I will make it again as part of my predictions for digital payments in 2021. This is a carryover prediction from last year. With Karl Toriola running MTN from March 1, 2021, you can be sure as hell that he will do something as he has a track record of performance, and banking has a track record of minting cash. Marry performance to sashe, and you can be sure as hell that MTN won’t give up until they get this license.

#4 Agent locations surpass 1m

I made the right call last year that agency banking will explode. Despite the Covid pandemic, agency banking grew like wildfire. Opay, which ran into a brick wall with all the other tech services, finally hit paydirt with agency banking doing $1.4b worth of transactions a month. Teamapt is almost pivoting to this as well; fancy fintech be damned. Unofficial numbers of locations hit 530K last year;. At the same time, SANEF seems a bit quiet about a target; I’m sure the market will drag this over to 1m locations before the end of the year.

#5 Interbank transactions cross half a billion a month

I made the call for our Nigerian faster payments to hit 300m per month. I don’t yet know (as of this writing) the number for December, but sweet November saw the industry moving N17t worth of cash over 224m transactions. The pace will continue, and it will cross the 500m transactions per month around August 2021.

#6 Free interbank transfers go mainstream

Kuda made noise about this (and it seems to be working), and Sparkle is now leading the charge. But guess what, a major bank (think Access, GTBank, or Sterling but not UBA) will decide that, hey, let’s blow this sh*t out of the water and make interbank transfers below a certain amount, say N5K, free. Such a move has excellent optics, and most importantly, it’s the singularly free feature nobody can abuse. Think!

#7 Agency banking becomes the last mile for fintechs

Agency banking is messy as hell; you don’t even find them on Twitter or the ‘gram. But who cares? Once the boys of Opay, Capricorn Digital, Teamapt, and others found success, the next is for them to layer a patina of APIs on these connections, and it becomes the real last mile for digital payments. If agents are fully KYCed and have constant location-aware devices, then the physical can meet online for loans, KYC verification-as-a-service, e-commerce deliveries, transfers-to-cash from banks, etc.

#8 Virtual accounts come of age

Some people I know have been cooking virtual accounts for years, but Teamapt, ever the innovation and executioner, quickly brought Providus to the limelight. Now others like Rubies, Zenith, Sterling, Wema, and our Woven + Sparkle are now on the game. Virtual account (vNUBAN) is a little clunky but significantly superior and a more inclusive payment within the Nigerian context than cards. It’s the only payment method that works across all channels. I expect this to blow cards out of the water, although I said the same thing last year, and it didn’t happen.🙈

Disclosure: My company, Trium, owns Woven and a significant investor in Sparkle.

#9 Local investors step to the plate

With practically everyone I know beating themselves up for missing out on the Paystack investment train when it came calling years ago, those with some cash are now seeking out future Shola Akinlades to invests in. The percentage of investment by local investors will grow to be at least 30% this year. But please be warned, dear investor, angel investment is not for the impatient and the weak of heart. Dear founder, not every cash you see is good for your cap table.

Disclosure: I’m a director at Paystack, and nope, my call last year wasn’t a piece of insider information; and thanks, Shola, for making a good example of Nigerians

#10 WhatsApp makes a payment play in Nigeria

With Stripe leading the charge to dip a toe in Nigeria, and it counts Facebook as part of its customers, WhatsApp could expedite its move into payments in Nigeria. All it needs to do is slap a virtual account behind every WhatsApp profile, and the rest is history.

#11 The one prediction 100% to come true

I always say this, and I would say it again: All of these predictions for digital payments in 2021, are at best, educated guesses at what could happen, which isn’t better than a bunch of bananas trying to eat a monkey.

Wondering what happened the previous years and the predictions? Read about my takes for 2018, 2019, and 2020.

Simple ways to prevent banks from taking your money

Navigating Nigerian banking can feel like a high-stakes game, but with a few strategic moves, you can outmaneuver the banks and keep more of your hard-earned cash. Explore the some of the simplest methods to hold your 2k tight.

Hardly a day goes by without someone screaming on Twitter about their bank taking their money even while doing little or no transactions. Trust me, Nigerian banks are optimized for money making but hey, who said you can’t beat them at their games?

Here are simple steps you can take to take control of your money and minimize how nicely you get shaved by our Sashe bankers.

Get yourself a savings account because current accounts are for dummies

Banks can charge an account maintenance fee of up to N1 for every N1,000 that danced across your accounts. If you are the type doing well on your Instagram side hustle, banks will quickly strip you bare.

On the flip side, the ordinary savings account with any Nigerian bank is so optimized that it can do practically everything a current account will do save for getting an overdraft and being able to write cheques. Even then, these two features ain’t that important because banks don’t give loans that easy to start with; and nobody writes cheques again.

It really makes no sense to keep a current account except you are some form of dinosaur.

Cancel your debit cards 💳

Yes, you heard me. Debit cards are so yesterday. But hold up, I assume you are a typical Nigerian that has bank accounts with three different banks. So, cancel all your debit cards everywhere save the most reliable of them all (I wish you good luck deciding which that is). This saves you from the bank digging holes every other month to take card maintenance charges. And on top of that, they could charge you for the SMS sent to inform you that they just charged your sorry ass. Savage people!

Interestingly, card maintenance is free for current accounts, but the account maintenance will/could wipe you out.

Cancel your SMS alert

Yes, again, you can cancel your SMS alert. Any banker who said you must have an SMS is either dumb or lying. Either way, they ain’t supposed to be a banker. The Central Bank said if you are the type that hates the ding-dong of SMS notifications, you can cancel it if you have an email alert and sign an indemnity (Section 10.10 of The Guide to Charges by Banks, Other Financial and Non-Bank Financial Institutions, January 1, 2020). It’s right there in the regulation but hey, this is Nigeria, who reads when you can spread rumors?

Is there a downside to this? Not that I know of. Are emails very secure? F* nope! But then SMS messages are worse than emails. Why? Because they sit unencrypted and open all the telcos that they passed through. So that fancy OTP of yours is waiting and begging to be read.

One last thing on SMS, beware of banks that send you multiple SMS for a single transaction. The scam works this way; you want to transfer N50,000 to some random dude; you get an SMS for the amount you have sent, and another SMS for the N52.5 transfer charge as well.

Stamp duties

Too bad, nobody can help you out with this; every account gets charged once the transaction is over N10,000. At least, turn the SMS off so that they don’t make potholes in your bank accounts.

Open another savings account

Are you aware that your dead-ass savings account pays about a 3.75% interest rate? Never seen it before, I guess because you rock your account like a Twitter DM. And when banks are now offering 1.8% on fixed deposits, it’s mad not to rock this baby.

By a quirk of Nigerian banking regulation, bankers must give you 30% of the MPR, which is 12.5% as of May 28, 2020. But but but, if you make more than four withdrawals on your savings account within a month, irrespective of your balance, just kiss the interest on it goodbye (Section 1.2 of The Guide to Charges by Banks, Other Financial and Non-Bank Financial Institutions, January 1, 2020).

A simple way around it, open another savings account, which your bank would gladly oblige, put your excess funds in there, and spend the tashere in the main one. And don’t let the devil tempt you to go there more four times in a month.

Disclosures 🙊🙊

I still have three current accounts with Access, UBA, and Fidelity banks. I’m nowhere practicing what I just preached. But then I didn’t complain of banks taking charges off me because the money they make gets paid as bonus to my friends, and I force them to take me out for drinks where I ruin them by drinking more than all the charges they have taken from me for the year. Sweet revenge.

I used to be a banker where I made a truckload of cash from these same charges I just complained about for the banks I worked for; they paid my bonuses, and my friends who paid for SMS alerts, dragged me to different clubs to ruin me. Karma goes round.

Why QR code payment would never succeed in Africa

QR code payments, hailed for simplicity, might thrive in other countries but struggle in Africa due to factors like sparse smartphone ownership, poor network infrastructure, and usability issues in payment apps.

Paying with QR code is so cool. All you need to do is bring out your smartphone, take a snapshot, and voila, payment is made. The simplicity and versatility are simply unparalleled. QR code payments have been adapted from in-store shopping; to online payments; to even paying for cable subscription on TV.

As much as you would love QR code, it’s not really a global phenomenon. While QR code is in use almost everywhere in the world, it’s more prevalent in China. It’s so popular in China that is regarded as a currency — it’s practically the only way to pay for anything. This is even more evident in that kids as young as four years may never have seen cash. Remember, if you carry cash around in China, people will probably think you have lost your mind.

QR, which means Quick Response, code has a fascinating background. It was invented by a Japanese company called Denso Wave in 1994 as a means of tracking vehicles during manufacturing. Just imagine robots bringing out their smartphones to snap pictures of cars. That may not have been how it worked, but you get the drift. After a while, people figured that if QR codes could be used to identify car parts then it could also be used to identify things to be paid for. Before long, it was adapted to various situations. Considering that QR code is similar to a fancy barcode, it could now be put or printed on practically any surface with a display.

However, Tencent popularized the use of QR code for payments when it started embedding it into its WeChat platform. The accessibility and ease of use made for a viral adoption and the rest, as they say, is history.

So, if QR code is versatile, cheap, and cheerful, why hasn’t it been used to transform payments in Africa? I guess it’s easier said than done.

Seeing how successful QR code has been in Asia, many attempts have been made to bring this magic to Africa. But practically each of these has failed woefully. I recall a meeting I had with one of the global payments giants in Tanzania in 2016; they wanted to use QR code to make payments in the country but failed to read the tea leaves; the Telco they were pitching put them on the next plane out of Darussalam.

It’s not rocket science to figure out why QR codes schemes never work in Africa. Some are obvious while others require seeing beyond technology into the realities of the African space.

The lack of network effect is one of the major killers of payment schemes in Africa, QR code included. Quite a number of supposedly smart fintechs naively believe their innovative products can be scaled without leveraging on others; instead of establishing a common standard, they go at it alone. And usually, watch the product die alone as well. Companies like Tencent and Alibaba who can define new ecosystems are a rarity. Majority of successful companies rely on common standards and collaborate actively with others to thrive. By the way, there is now an EMV standard for QR code, it’s too little too late.

While the sale and adoption of smartphones have been impressive for years, the reality is that Africa is still an impoverished continent where 41% of us live below the poverty line. Being poor means only 33% of Africans can afford a smartphone even if they barely made it through getting a feature phone. QR code payments depend 100% on smartphones, and where the majority can’t afford smartphones, the chance of QR scaling is zero.

The beauty and elegance of QR code payments come alive when you use it, but needs a working Internet. Unfortunately, telecoms services in Africa are shitty because of many reasons; poor investment, dilapidated infrastructure, fibre cables getting sabotaged, sometimes thieves making away with batteries and other telecoms equipment. With a patchy network, payments get stalled, and after a few failed attempts that must have taken many minutes into completing a transaction, little wonder QR codes get abandoned

And even for the few that have smartphones, they hardly leave the mobile data on. Also, though most Africans get their internet from their mobile phones, data is still costly in most parts of the continent. Consequently, savvy users turn off their data; the chore of turning it on for just payment is significant friction that has made QR code payments not habit-forming.

Lastly, payments apps in Africa have poor usability, which doesn’t exclude even the largest pan-African banks. In fact, you could almost say that app usability is inversely proportional to the size of the bank; the smaller fintechs have snazzier designs and more responsive interfaces. Poor customer experience means it takes just a little too long to bring out a smartphone, unlock it, spend minute logging in, finding the QR menu, and getting payments done. Imagine a scenario at a retail checkout where a paying customer is spending minutes fumbling with her phone when cash and cards are faster. Here comes the death of QR.

While QR has stumbled across Sub-Saharan Africa, other payment methods, which are aware of the African realities, such as USSD and STK, have made significant progress. M-Pesa processes billions of transactions each year over STK. 35% of the over 700 million interbank transfers in Nigeria in 2018 were made on USSD.

Would QR code ever catch on in Africa as the infrastructure gets better and smartphones cheaper? Maybe. Maybe not. But for the time being, it has been certified dead on arrival, needing no post-mortem inquiry


Originally written for Trium Networks in August 2019