10 predictions for digital payments in 2018

Here are my top 10 predictions for the digital payment industry in 2018.  These predictions are presented in no particular order and have been influenced by my interactions with the evolution of payments and other experts I work with. They are strictly limited to Nigeria because going beyond the border into the Benin Republic would quickly expose my foolery.

Yes, I know that prediction is a fool’s game especially when my metaphysical skills are zero. What stops me from throwing my hat into the prediction game for the year ahead? After all, seeing the future is not more accurate than a bunch of monkeys typing out a Shakespeare. Who cares?
On the serious side, though, it’s likely that any of these following could happen. But if the predictions don’t happen, please, don’t hold me accountable. I am warning you upfront!

#1 Alat gets a (bigger) challenger

Wema had a fantastic year with Alat; it’s digital bank that everyone loves or pretend not to love. When the news broke out that Wema would be launching a digital bank, many sniggered, but hey, they’ve a fantastic run. Sometimes before the middle of 2018, though, expect at least two banks to join in the digital banking fray. After all, Wema has done the homework for everyone and posted the result on the billboard. The new banks would dodge Alat’s missteps (very few) and amplify their successes (many). It could be bloody as they are all going for the same middle-class disloyal customer base. You can still join the survey.

#2 PSD2 instigates Open Banking

PSD2 will go live by January 13 and it would have hiccups for months. Nevertheless, expect waves of open banking initiatives to hit other countries. Nigeria already has one in the offing with https://openbanking.ng. The need for easier integration, the pain of which has been a major obstacle to Nigerian Fintechs and their rose-tinted world-changing ideas, would drive that openness.

#3 Maturity comes to Fintech

The Fintech space would become more matured as local funds start to make plays. So far, it has been more of hype and hyperboles. Irrespective of the sexiness of Fintech stardoms, real problems exist to be solved by the challengers. The market would weed out the wannabes and lightweights. The Venture Capitals who got burned from letting their Fintech run riots would bring sanity and governance. That should attract new investors. Watch out for new seed funders such as Microtraction and Itanna.

#4 Smaller Fintechs instigates price war

The cost of electronic transactions dropped significantly this year, and that spurred a massive increase in transaction counts. Of course, you can’t disown the impressive improvements in success rates of POS, ATM and interbank transactions. Nevertheless, smaller players are still having a tough time enjoying part of this goodies. There would be more growth in 2018. However, as electronic transactions count gets higher, expect another wave of pricing reduction, triggered by the smaller Fintechs who are fighting for customers and eyeballs.

#5 Bitcoins bubble explodes, killing many

2017 has been a wild ride for Bitcoins and other cryptos. Many of those who asked me to mortgage my house but I didn’t listen to are already saying “Deji, you are a loser, we told you so.” I still think cryptocurrencies’ bubble (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.), will finally explode, making a loud splat sound, taking down many alongside with their savings. Enough said.

#6 International players come to lunch

International heavy-weights will follow the likes of Opera (who has reportedly bought Paycom PIDO) to make investments in Nigeria. And it’s not difficult to see the reason: our payment and digital transaction space smoked hot all through the 12 months of 2017. Many learned the hard lesson of not staking out Nigeria when there is a chance to do so. Now that the FX has been stable getting in and out is easier. Still, should likes of  Alibaba, Tencent, and other Chinese super Fintechs show up, our digital space would never be the same again.

#7 Android supports pay with Paga

While Android phones have ruled the world and they are local chieftains in Nigeria, most phone users are stuck with free apps not because they are stingy (well, we are stingy, jo!) they can’t easily pay for apps. Cards get bounced, wallets are not available, PayPal is sketchy, but the good old bank accounts are not allowed to the party. In 2018, expect local payment methods (accounts, wallets, and mobile money) to become available within Android, Amazon (Longshot), Facebook, and Apple Pay (Longshot). Efforts from likes of WeCashUp could yield fruits to bring international payments to smaller payment schemes.

#8 Fraudsters get a beating

The increase in electronic frauds has been trending well with the explosion in digital payments. While there have been efforts to collaborate to suppress, 2018 would be the year this comes to a head and expect very serious and deliberate collaboration between banks and Fintechs. Already, CBN and banks have come up with the BVN Watchlist and other private initiatives, such as Stop Fraud Africa, are coming up with online real-time APIs to stop fraudsters at their games.

#9 Retail digital lending become prevalent

Retail credit has been a tricky game for Nigerian banks. Everyone complains that banks don’t give loans except you have an account with them, spend months and even years tending the account and then when that time comes, it takes forever to process the loan after you must have submitted tons of documents including your DNA test result. That is changing with likes of Access Bank PayDay Loan which gives instant credit just by dialing USSD code * 901 * 11 #. Expect more banks and lenders to join the instant credit bandwagon, after all, Access Bank didn’t die from doing it.

#10 AI to the customer service’ rescue

The banality of customer service can drive the most patient human to madness and as such many are experimenting with AIs to help customers faster. The proliferation of simple to start, free to use, and easy to deploy AI platforms, such as DialogFlow, Flow.ai, engati.com, etc. means this could become an easy game for everyone. Access Bank has Tamara, expect other big players to go live with an AI system before the middle of the year. In fact, if you are a bank or Fintech but don’t have an AI system by December 2018, you are probably not in the game.

Fraudsters count on banks and FinTechs not talking. It’s killing digital payments!

Fraud plagues Nigerian online transactions. Nigeria lacks centralized fraud prevention services, with the recent CBN watchlist being limited. A global fraud repository could aid but requires robust risk management and quality assurance. Collaboration is vital to combat fraud and ensure a safer digital environment.

Electronic fraud is a significant reason why many Africans especially Nigerians, including highly educated middle-class, don’t want to do transactions online or use digital products. While a lot is being done with efforts such as Two Factor Authentication, customer opt-ins, etc., frauds still go on because banks and payment providers don’t share information with each other.

Fraudsters are still having a field day because of one thing – evil thrives in darkness.

Recently one of my friends running a payment company called to find out what we could do to some people who did fraud on his platform. As a matter of practicality, I told him nothing.

Think about it, what if he went to the police? Unless the fraudsters were so brazenly sloppy, the Police probably can’t investigate to catch them. He will spend the next few months going back and forth like a poorly installed pendulum, some random arrests could be made, but in the end, just like others, nothing would happen.

So, he did what every payment company or bank has been doing since – improved his systems, licked his wounds clean and moved on with life. I’m dead sure he’s silently cursing them under his breath.

But my gut feelings told me these bad guys didn’t just start with him – they have been on this less than illusory career for long. And that is the crux of the matter.

In South Africa, the banks, payment providers, and just everyone came around to form the SAFPS (Southern African Fraud Prevention Service). If you did a bad thing and your name strolls into their list, trust me, your transactions will continue to fail, but you will know why.

International internet service providers also use large crowd-sourced databases of spammers (SPAMHAUS) where source IP addresses and domain names of spammers are logged. If you spam and your name goes there, your emails will never be delivered again (to those who use the database for filtering spams). Major companies in Nigeria, including almost all banks, use SPAMHAUS to protect their email infrastructure.

So why don’t we have the same thing in Nigeria? I am very sure if my friend had a service, he could check transactions against, the boys who scalped him may have been stopped from getting their loot. And let’s say he was their first port of call, if he reports them, they won’t be able to hurt anyone again.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigeria Electronic Fraud Forum (NEFF) did the right thing recently when the CBN watchlist was inaugurated. My banks have been sending me warning messages not to misbehave because if my name should enter that list, my own don do.

This list is limited to only banks and BVNs alone. However, we know that fraud surface area covers extend to emails, phones (those spammy BVN update alerts), IP addresses, etc. Another challenge is that many frauds happen on platforms beyond banks. For example, fraudsters routinely log into wallet systems to defraud hapless customers.

A centralized global repository of fraud information, accessible and non-partisan would go a long way to instill confidence, and just allow everyone to snore longer at night. The cost of transaction also goes down as cost attributable to fraud losses would not be overlaid on transaction fees anymore. However, without this repository and other means of squelching fraud, innovations from smart Fintechs may never reach that critical level as payers will always be frightened to go online.

If they could pull this off in South Africa, why not Nigeria? It would be to everyone’s benefit to collaborate and crowdsource information.

Nevertheless, crowdsourced fraud information comes with risks as well. What do I do if a payment provider maliciously put my name on that list and my transactions get flagged? What if someone takes them to court and asks for $1B damages for failed transactions?

A shared repository of fraud information doesn’t remove the requirements for proper risk management – which much FinTechs lack. I mean, risk management is as boring as hell, no place in the awesome sexiness of a startup. True? False! Adhering to regulations, PCI-DSS, ensuring that changes follow maker/checker processes, logging everything that moves, encryption, hashing before and after changes, etc. guarantees your neurons are used for product development, not recovery efforts.

You can’t underestimate the need for testing. Quality assurance is another major area of lack for Fintechs and this is probably responsible for 70% of the holes that the fraud lizards crawl through. Beyond normal happy path, regression, a double-blind ethical hacking can pinpoint gaps that need plugging.

Beyond all these, collaboration and information sharing will go a long way to keep the bad boys at bay; Christmas is around the corner, and everyone wants to hammer.

Is Financial Inclusion a Myth?

What if Financial Inclusion is a myth that we have created in our jaded view of what we feel is good for the world’s poor but, does not address their needs or that they do not even need? What if the real problem is that the worlds poor don’t trust these help and they see it as a means of control by the government who want information about everyone for taxation and further subjugation?

Financial Inclusion used to be a hot buzz word, and even years after, it’s still hot enough to warm a pot of coffee. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to understand it from a viable business model.

Nevertheless, from an altruistic angle, it makes sense to me. It is not out of place for the haves to pay for the transactions of the have-nots so they could bring them to modern living. The World Bank says “Financial Inclusion is a key enabler to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity.”
CGAP believes that Financial Inclusion is about migrating the 2 Billion working-age adults that don’t have accounts with licensed financial institutions to the formal economy where, regardless of income levels, they can have access to savings accounts, insurance, and other financial services needed to transform their lives.

But recently even that understanding of mine has been shaken so profoundly I’m asking myself if Financial Inclusion isn’t a scam.
Before you lob a hand grenade at me, hear me out.

I recently had a conversation that underscored this new position of the possibility that Financial Inclusion could be a scam. Someone asked a poignant question in a group chat – do the financially excluded really want to be financially included? If yes, do they want to be financially included in the form that is being shoved down their throats? That question has been nagging me ever since. I took the liberty to ask a few “financially excluded” people around me and their responses were shocking. They didn’t care for digital payments, wallets, bank, Bitcoin, etc. All they want is real hard cash which they can spend and treasure.

Beyond receiving money from the cities, many of their friends in the villages don’t care about money transfers and other fancy digital thingamajigs.
It is possible I’m totally wrong in all these. It is also possible that this could be a beautiful scam that sounds pretty good to our helpful alter egos.

Financial Inclusion has many challenges – education, infrastructure, cost of transactions, KYC. But something that struck me is that when the need hits the sweet spot, some of these things do catch on. For example, despite some bit of literacy requirement, elitism and cost associated with mobile phones, the usage caught on to almost everyone that only those in the deepest rock caves in Nigeria don’t have them. The numbers on NCC website speak for themselves.
As much as the internet is a luxury in Nigeria, almost everyone is on Whatsapp (it cost money to have data), and there are more Facebook active monthly users than active monthly bank accounts.

Do you think Financial Inclusion is a scam?

Where are these 37 Million Ghostpreneurs in Nigeria?

The ongoing revolution in payments, automated credits, and self-service onboarding that have fueled massive growth in digital banking over the last 3 years seems to have largely overlooked the Nigerian Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector. Forget whatever anyone says, the small business owners have been left behind.  Who did they offend?
At a recent event, I touted the numbers from SMEDAN that Nigeria had, as of 2013, 37,067,416 MSMEs, someone almost stoned me with her stiletto (with wicked looking pointies that could be deemed a weapon of personal destruction) because the numbers just didn’t look real.
Or are they Ghostpreneurs?
The numbers didn’t add up for me as well. Where are these companies or micro-enterprises? Finding them is hard. I mean, every bank will tell you that 7% or less of its accounts belong to non-individuals. When you look at NIBSS June 2017 figures, corporate accounts are just 6.5M out of the 98M accounts strewn across 20+ Nigerian banks. And the 98M accounts belong to about 26.5M accounts which average about 3+ accounts per individual. And by the way, over 98% of account holders have accounts with more than one bank.
Something doesn’t add up.
Of course, it was easy to see. Many of the MSMEs run their businesses with their personal accounts, so they are probably not Ghostpreneurs. So Sisi Clara Cake and Thingz, Baba Bisi Furniture Works probably run off their personal accounts with Bank A and B. Would you have thought they love it that way? Maybe not.
Until recently, opening a personal account in Nigeria was one of those rites of passage where you must pull a tooth with rusty pliers, by yourself and without anesthetics. Calling it painful and sadistic would be an exercise in understatement. The good thing is that over the last 2 years, the self-service revolution has extended from digital services to account opening.
At first, banks streamlined their account opening packages, so you won’t have to write GMAT essays just to open your Savings Account and then naturally progressed to opening accounts online. Now, practically all forward-looking banks allow you to open accounts online or via USSD. Unfortunately, what you get is a basic Tier 1 account and to upgrade to a proper account you can live with, a trip to the bank branch is still required. Alat by Wema has done a good job though – you get to open a proper account 100% online, and even your debit card is ferried to your shanty free of charge. I hope others see the light!
However, opening a business account is still an exercise in morbid self-flagellation; no bank seems to get it right. They ask you for all types of documentation, like what tribal mark your dead great grandmother had (you never met her!). They require random documents from fledgling entrepreneurs, who can barely put together their business plans. Many of these documents require pilgrimages to dens of government agencies. Ultimately, unless that account is critical, most entrepreneurs use their personal accounts to run their side gigs.
Think about it, have you ever paid your friend that does small chops as side hustle via her company account?
The lack of ease to open a business account has been a lose-lose-lose for every single stakeholder.
Not having a business account, in the company name, means a small business will never be able to scale. I mean, do you think Shell or Mobil will give you a small supply contract with a personal account? Absolutely not. Furthermore, by the time the small business eke out some semblance of progress and a business account is opened, the company is locked out of valuable business loans because the new account would not have the financial history that has been lost to the founder’s account.
The efforts of different banks, especially Diamond and Fidelity Banks (Disclosure: I worked at Fidelity Bank), would continue to be hampered if the ease of business account opening is not addressed.
The government also loses because taxes are lost when revenues for companies are sunk into individual accounts. The government is also not able to have data to track the performance of MSME initiatives, and they are not able to drive grants to sectors in dire need of one (I dey try myself, I know!)
What the MSMEs need today is a bank, beyond the rhetoric and adverts, which can automate the account opening processes. If an individual does not need to worship at a bank branch to open accounts same should also be extended to MSMEs. A startup should be able to start the process, upload all documentation and have an account opened within minutes or hours at most. There are APIs, tools and other offline services available banks to authenticate almost all documentation required for business account opening. Each director or signatory in the account would also be part of the process and can be validated as well.
I honestly believe this would happen as soon as the market for individual digital payments reaches maturity. However, between now and then, the first banks to streamline this process may have a lockdown on MSME business accounts.

Getting my Clones to do the Work

If only cloning were a thing! Imagine the possibilities: one of me hustling at work, another spreading kindness, a third diving back into research, and two others launching a startup. And then there’s me, spending as I wish. Delusions…

If I could clone myself into 5 other annoying DejiOlowes, today would have been the day I would place the orders for new mes.

I woke up this morning not wanting to do anything, but hey, I have to work – else I won’t be able to get food on the table. But come to think of it, what if I had clones, they would have gone to work, slaving their miserable lives on my behalf while I get on the next flight for a late summer vacation.
Who could resist such?

So what if I could clone 5 of me, what would they be doing?

DejiOlowe1 would definitely be going to work. I mean, he needs to hustle for the money all of us would spend. He would be warned to behave himself, not get distracted, no drinks after work, and just be a chilled dude. In fact, he would clock in more hours a week than Elon Musk.

DejiOlowe2 would be the nice dude, working the phone; calling family and friends, visiting relatives, and doing charity work.

DejiOlowe3 should go back to my first love – researching medical devices and esoteric stuff. He may get back to the Ph.D. that I abandoned in 2011. There was also an abandoned photonics experiment that he must pick up and finish. Oh, I forgot about the meta-genetic algo optimization that he has to work on as well.

DejiOlowe4 and 5 would start a startup together. Not sure what they would do but hey, they better get going because they need to make a humongous amount of money for all of us to spend down the line.

If only I could get an extra DejiOlowe to be working the gym while the real me gets 6 packs, that would have been the icing on the cake. Drooling.

And the real me? Probably lounging around, I will control the bank accounts and I set spend-limits for the other hapless DejiOlowes. If 4 and 5 do a good job, then I should travel the world and visit all the exotic places I have always wanted to go. Bora Bora tops the list.

Damn, I need to get out of bed!