It’s destructive for lenders to punish good borrowers

Loans in Nigerians are quite expensive and it’s due in one part to the high-default rate but also  because of what I would describe as  lenders destroying their chances of developing a good business. You’re probably wondering why I would say this, so if you would be so kind as to allow me do you a favor and relieve you of your rose-tinted lenses .. 

This is how lending in Nigeria typically goes…

Lenders know how profitable solving the credit problem can be but they also know a significant portion of their borrowers won’t pay back. Oh please there’s no surprise here anymore, Nigerians have taken it upon themselves to always treat loans like an inheritance from their grandparents. At this point, you might be tempted to play the devil’s advocate and argue that the poverty level and weak economic conditions pose a significant hurdle to repaying loans for the average Nigerian, I won’t argue with you but I will say this; beyond the financial factors that may affect loan repayment, at the core of default is generally Nigerians questionable demeanor towards loans – zero character! The causal relationship between hardship and defaulting on loans is not as airtight as one might like *chuckling in AMCON seizures*.

So what happens? Lenders increase the interest rate on the loans to cover these losses they envisage because of these bad actors and the income to cover these defaults would be paid by those who are “foolish” enough to pay back. Ohooo!

Here’s the fallout 

Lenders might believe this manner of conducting business is foolproof in that as long as it takes care of the bottom line, nothing else matters but instead of solving the problem, it makes it so much worse.You see, those who are good for the money and actually intend to do business in good faith, see the crazy interest rate, say “your fada!” and just forgo the loan. Guess who’s left to do business with? 

The desperate and the wicked. 

Those who are desperate have no option but to take the loan but we all know where desperation takes anyone and then you have the wicked who have no intention of paying anyway and so don’t even mind the interest rate and proceed to take the loans (Lagbaja, nothing for youuu).

Where does this leave lenders?

So after all is said and done, the reality for lenders is that:

High interest rates push away those most likely to repay their loans (because they care the most about what to pay back). 

And 

High interest rates mean nothing to those who won’t pay back anyway (talk about a double-edged sword). 

It’s pretty obvious the tactics have to change, if not these lenders have no way of succeeding. The only way that a lender would do well is with an appropriately priced interest rate

What happens to the risk of default? 

Wouldn’t the lender be wiped out?

The best way to build a sustainable lending business is in the Risk Acceptance Criteria (RAC), the technology, and the loads of data to go with it; that’s how to really address the pain points associated with lending.

Anything else, such as raising interest rates, is completely destructive and there is no way out of it; it’s like a cobra eating its tail.

In what world does one put a band-aid over a headache and wait for relief?

The devalued Naira is a blessing for Nigerians

If I said to you that a devalued Naira is a blessing, you’d probably turn towards me yelling “your fada” with as much venom as a village cobra. But if you think about it deeply and understand a few things, this tough pill might be a lot easier to swallow. 

Since time immemorial, Nigerians have always valued a strong Naira. My mum regaled me with stories of N1 getting $2 on the streets of Lagos; those were the days chicken went for dentals. However, the Naira has been on a free fall since; plummeting faster than a falling rock. Because we import everything, the fall means life is difficult for the average Nigerian Joe.

So, it’s almost foolhardy convincing Nigerians that a devalued Naira can be a good thing.

How can a weak Naira even be a good thing?

Let’s start with the internet.

The internet aids the average Nigerian’s discoverability 

It’s one of those things that our politicians and money bags haven’t been able to ruin, per se. With the internet, every Nigerian has a chance to sell their services and even goods across the globe without leaving their homes in Ilorin or Kaura Namoda. As long as you have something to sell.

The internet makes every one of us discoverable – competing with everyone in the world, irrespective of the corner of the earth where they are holed up. All you have to do is be on the right platform and showcase your quality. With the right keywords, your services could be found by anyone in any country.

Being found is one thing, after all, others are being found in other countries as well. But with our weak Naira, converted to USD, suddenly, your services and goods can now be found at a bargain.

The opportunities exist …

If you think you have to export something physical, you are missing the point of globalization. Every soft skill can be sold as a service online. 

As a writer, you could get access to tons of writing gigs online. Software developers are in high demand especially when you share the same time zone as Europe where the demand for engineers is so hot it could melt a stone; content creators are being sought after from every part of the globe. Global firms are in need of designers, virtual assistants, analysts, etc. The world is quite literally your playground.

Slow your roll …

Granted, these opportunities exist and are ripe for the taking but only those who are ready to put in the work and understand the right kind of work to put in will go home smiling; tapping into these openings won’t be a piece of cake. A lot is required, the stakes are higher and the competition pool is deeper.

Let’s start with the basic requirement being a constant access to good internet (our service providers are chuckling at this one). In this Digital Age, internet access has rightly established itself as a need but we haven’t quite hacked the model for providing good and affordable unlimited internet services just yet. Perhaps, internet connectivity should get in line for a fix behind it’s older brother, electricity. But that’s not to say we don’t have a couple of reliable providers keeping Nigerians connected to the global village. 

It goes without saying (but I’ll still say it) that when trying to tap into the global market, lowering the communication barrier is important; your command of English, the global lingua franca, must be impeccable. proper articulation can be quite advantageous – whether in your speech or writing. Speak well, speak clearly and apply the same to your writing. People recognizing your genius rests heavily on you being able to communicate it. 

Beyond the basic requirements or the skills you have, being professional, responsible and having a keen eye for quality can really put you over the top. Resist that urge to tell your clients to “manage it” when you have produced subpar work; the global market is not as forgiving of mediocrity as we have somehow learnt to tolerate as Nigerians. Be open and flexible; continuous improvement should be your holy grail. 

And my personal favorite, being accountable makes you even more attractive in the market; don’t disappear on your clients or give excuses after the fact; instead, let them know ahead of time if there will be any deviations or if you will be unavailable for a while; trust is everything, especially when building a borderless proposition. 

What’s in it for you? Money.. And that’s just the start 

In some twisted way, this is perhaps one of the few times a devalued currency can serve its intended purpose; the foremost economic logic behind a weaker currency is that it makes a country’s exports cheaper and more competitive in the foreign market – this is supposed to serve as an incentive that boosts exports. The economic quagmire we seem to have found ourselves in is: a weaker currency, a struggling commodity exports economy which is also highly import-dependent (shedding premium tears). 

The silver lining here is that our human capital exports seem to be thriving and this is perhaps the loophole with which Nigerians are taking advantage of a weaker Naira whilst they patiently wait for the country to heal itself. 

The pay from working abroad can be amazing. N200,000 here as a writer, could seamlessly be $2,000 net from working remotely; N400,000 as a developer could be $5,000 and a designer could knock off about $500 per good design, and that’s about one every couple of days… do the math. 

And my grandma said

Bi a gun iyan ninu ewe; ti a se’be ninu epo epa. Eni to ma yo ma yo.

(cha ching!)

Lendsqr is solving the African credit problems

My diverse experience in banking and technology led me to recognize Lendsqr’s potential to drive African economic growth. With millions seeking credit, our lending infrastructure aims to democratize access to finance, empowering dreams across the continent.

With years spent in banking, technology, and payments and a background in engineering, I’m able to understand how foundational systems become the catalyst for growth. This understanding of foundational systems gave me the belief that Lendsqr has a unique opportunity to spur the growth of the African economy by being a leading lending infrastructure provider across Africa.

With a population of 1.4b people, the majority born just after the Y2K bug, the demand for smartphones, internet, the good things of life, is growing at a rapid pace. Many of these, including education, health, etc. would need to be financed with credit. But access to credit continues to be a challenge which becomes a barrier for  the young woman in Accra from realizing her dreams and the lad in Kampala from going to the school of his choice.. 

We have witnessed the rise of digital lenders in Africa, particularly Nigeria and Kenya. This is driven by the massive adoption of smartphones, the continual reduction in the cost of internet data, and the relentless push of financial inclusion by central banks and fintechs going to the last mile with agency networks. While some of this growth has been driven by COVID over the last two years, experts are unanimous in the belief that the changes are a signal of future growth for Africans.

What problems do we have?

Africans continue to struggle to get credit, often in life and death scenarios. And even when they do get it, the interest rates charged are usually so punitive; many have commited suicide due to the pressure from lenders and their inability to repay their loans. On the flip side, lenders continue to deal with high-default and zero consequences for serial defaulters.

While technology and access to data powering the underwriting process can solve these problems, lenders lack access to quality data and sustainable technology, and even when those are available, they are so expensive that even VC backed lenders can hardly afford them. The diverse integration needed by a lender to various KYC providers and  payments systems also requires a level of expertise and focus that these lenders do not have.

Lenders just want to lend; not to become programmers.

How is Lendsqr solving this problem?

Lendsqr is building a cutting edge lending infrastructure powered by technology, data, integrations, and an ecosystem; providing lenders an easy way to digitize their lending in a scalable, sustainable, ethical, and most importantly, profitable way. Lendsqr has built integrations to some of the best payment processors, leading credit bureaus, and transactional data providers. These integrations and ecosystem play are often extremely difficult to pull off, providing Lendsqr with a unique opportunity to position itself at the confluence of credit and what people use credit for – shopping, health, cashflow, etc. 

By enabling smaller lenders to scale up, Lendsqr is guaranteeing Africans, starting with Nigerians, access to credit that would create a powerful long-term, consequently expanding our economy significantly in the coming years.

And this approach isn’t strange. We’ve seen the humble WordPress power 37% of global web pages despite large content owners like CNN, WaPo, etc. Shopify and Etsy power global e-commerce despite the might of Amazon and eBay. Lendsqr will power thousands of lenders who want simple, affordable, and smart but invisible tech to lend to millions of Africans.

Over the last couple of years, Lendsqr has helped hundreds of thousands of Nigerians have access to credit while helping lenders reach at a scale that is unprecedented and with technology previously found with only the highest funded VC backed lenders. But starting from March 1, 2022, Lendsqr would be making the same technology available to lenders for free. Any lender can sign up and start disbursing loans to their first customers within 5 minutes. The team has done the magic of hiding all the madness of being a digitized lender behind a single click. 

I’m excited to be part of this ecosystem of lenders, partners, data providers as we begin our journey to use technology, data, and partnerships to guarantee credit for every man and woman in Africa and beyond.

10 Predictions for Digital Payments in 2022

It’s 5 years since I’ve been shilling my predictions, and here again, are my top 10 predictions for 2022. Although, if any of them comes through, I owe you a beer.

As always, even though nobody pays attention, these predictions are largely educated guesses being that I have an advantage of seeing a lot from the wobbly perch on which I sit. But then, my candid advice is to take them with a grain of salt.

Now let’s dive into what Oracle has predicted for the coming year.

#1 A global giant comes to play. I will pay you with WhatsApp

Stripe came in 2020 to buy Paystack but not to play. But in 2022, my blurry eyes see a global player coming to play big time. But then why would a global player come? The market is hot as hell; alternative payments methods such as virtual accounts have proven to be very successful; API players like OnePipe and Mono are doing very well and shipping data around like smugglers, and lastly, open banking would go live once the standards are approved by the CBN. There is simply no better time to be here. My bets are on WhatsApp to come back with payments within their chat app. WhatsApp isn’t a stranger to payments; they have started, albeit with limited success, in Brazil and India.

#2 MTN launches PSB. Only a few super agents are left standing. Top 5 banks on notice

I predicted that MTN would get its license and they did. Give me a round of applause! Karl, the CEO of MTN, is a ruthless executioner and following the spanking that banks gave him last year on USSD, he has more than enough incentives to do a good job. And he will; never keep Karl behind your back. MTN would drive its PSB so hard and super agents so amazingly, they would quickly suck the oxygen out of the market. The prediction here is that I expect a rapid decimation of the super agents when MTN’s PSB goes live. I’m super curious about who Karl would anoint as the CEO of the bank though; I smell some ex-orange colored EDs who know all the tricks of the traditional banks and where dead bodies can be buried.

Disclosure: I bought some MTN shares and I’m rooting for them.

#3 Transfers become free. Financial inclusion becomes a reality

I don’t know if this is a prediction or a wish list because even if it doesn’t want to come to pass by itself, I’m going to devote part of my energy to it in 2022 to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the premise is simple – make transfers below a certain amount free for everyone and you have a good chance of bringing financial inclusion to every Nigerian. CBN did this for ATMs and it was a success (bankers hated it though) and they may be tempted to do it next year too. The last time the cost of transfer went down to N10, the market jumped like drops of water inside the hot oil.

#4 Open banking goes live. API players are shaken off the tree

CBN has been cooking this for so long it’s almost burning on the stove. Finally, the standards are approved, released, and banks are mandated to implement them in 10 days 😁. Now, open banking is significantly more comprehensive, faster, and safer than the APIs being sold by my friends. And because only licensed players would be allowed, the market may shake some old API providers out of the market the way mobile internet killed business centers (if you were born after I graduated, please ask your uncle).

Disclosure: I’m a Trustee at Open Banking Nigeria and deeply connected to the regulatory efforts to spin up open APIs in Nigeria.

#5 FX goes the crypto way. P2P FX transactions power investment apps. CBN is upset

CBN is like the financial Thor of Nigeria, its hammer can smash the densest head. It came after crypto earlier in the year, but they survived and went underground where no hammers can touch them. The hammer then came after FX jugglers; just ask what happened to abokifx.com. But we need FX or how do I pay my subscriptions or buy Tesla shares? As the need for FX has refused to go away, some players may borrow a leaf from the p2p play that saved crypto in Nigeria. Could that, in one move, be the end of CBN’s control of retail FX in Nigeria? While some investment apps may have gotten an injunction to prevent CBN from locking their accounts up, trust them to throw a party if p2p can save their business model.

#6 NIN dethrones BVN as the ID of choice. CBN’s fear about data comes true

CBN is super worried about how and what fintechs are doing with BVN; anyone with half a brain would be worried at how easy BVN data can be gotten and misused. So, they got NIBSS to clamp down on BVN; unfortunately, there are no better alternatives for fintechs. Well, NIN came along with fresher data and wider coverage. The only problem is NIN being government property means data security and privacy may be poor. Soon, a major breach happens and DSS is called to fish out fintech founders.

#7 Lending becomes hot. Bigger banks jump in. Bigger banks get shocked.

Nigeria has a N74 trillion credit gap which is flashing eyes at prospective lenders. Even though many lenders have taken bad advantage of borrowers so much that even regulators have to weigh in, the demand for consumer and SME credit continues to surge. At least 5 top 10 banks, being the jealous type, would jump in without looking, but with disastrous consequences. They will fail because their loans would be packed like corporate bank credits.

Disclosure: I’m deeper into lending tech than the Marianna trench. And Sterling (Spectra), Access (QuickBucks), and FCMB (Credit Direct) have been doing consumer credit at scale before my last child was born.

#8 Market goes super-hot. New unicorns are born. Old players die

2021 was a year of growth for the fintech market and the conditions for a hot 2022 have been laid down – #1 the API business model gets proven (Mono and OnePipe raised $19m between themselves); #2 CBN released tons of licenses for new payments providers; #3 virtual account became a prime payments method, and #4 the folks that raised cash must show investors growth. What do you think the torrid combination of this means for next year? The market becomes competitive like crazy; fintechs would use dollars as weapons to snap talents and do marketing; larger and ballsy fintechs may start doing their APIs directly, bypassing Mono and others. When the smoke clears, the battlefield would be full of dead bodies. But I see the new players being victorious and crowned as unicorns. And the older players? Any of them born before 2015 is likely to slink into oblivion.

#9 Visa buys Interswitch

I’m predicting this for the third year in a row; maybe if I say it enough it would happen. Why do I think so? It just makes sense for various reasons; Naira is at all-time cheap and Interswitch fundamentals is anchored on Naira which makes them cheaper and because they are a grown-ass fintech, they can’t enjoy the 20x EBITDA multiple that smaller and younger fintechs use for their valuation. But then, they are a behemoth, they control 90%+ of ISO card traffic in Nigeria. And sweet old Ms. Visa owns 20% of them to start with. Meanwhile, Mastercard continues to kick Visa’s teeth with their Nigerian market dominance and even the previously smacked Verve is having a resurgence. Therefore, it makes sense for Visa to buy the Switch and just make Verve become Verve by Visa (Ve by Vi, how does that even sound?) But the kicker? Some of the long-term investors are itching to return funds to their limited partners so they would be more than happy to sell to Visa and bid goodbye.

#10 Mastercard buys Etranzact

This prediction is tied to number 9 like the way my daughters are tied to my surname. Once Visa buys the Switch, Mastercard would have to find their way out of there faster than a cat would slink off a hot plate. Of the bunch of payments processors hanging around Nigeria, only Etranzact remains a viable option for Mastercard as they have their servers in every place that’s called a bank. Most of the institutional owners would gladly receive a 3x premium.

Wondering what happened the previous years and the predictions? Read about my takes for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Disclosure: I own some bits of Etranzact but if the multiple isn’t at least 5x, nobody should talk to me.

Fintech growth hindered by inability to collaborate

By Adedeji Olowe and Ifunanya Ezeani

Confidence in the Nigerian digital payments and Fintech industry is rising. And this is best exemplified by the rise of the African Fintech unicorns, three of which are based in Lagos. Their rapid rise is so unprecedented within the African context that It’s not uncommon to hear whispers about how Nigerian banks would be obliterated in a flash because they are slow and antediluvian.

Ironically, these Fintechs have leveraged their very existence on the core infrastructure built by these banks. Furthermore, most Fintechs continue to exist and attract investors anchored on the assurance of access to these payments infrastructure.

Even more ironic is the fact that while banks have collaborated in ensuring interoperability and fostering collaborations, Fintechs struggle to collaborate and build any enduring artifacts beyond a smattering of commercial partnerships.

Built by Banks. Used by all.

Take the Bank Verification Number (BVN) for example. Faced with a perennial lack of  credible foundational identity systems and the inability of the Nigerian Government to build one, the Central Bank of Nigeria, in collaboration with all Nigerian banks launched BVN, a centralized biometric identification system. The BVN gives each customer a unique identity across the Nigerian banking industry that can be used for easy identification and verification. The BVN consequently enabled seamless verifications that allowed Fintech to get millions of customers at scale. Who built the BVN? The Nigerian banks.

Nigeria Interbank Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) drives more than 90% of all interbank transfers through the NIBSS Instant Payment (NIP) network. (NIBSS) was founded and owned by all licensed banks including the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Every Fintech offering account transfer service routes that through NIP directly or indirectly through a bank who then routes that through NIP. Who built the NIBSS and the NIP? The Nigerian banks. 

Super agents and mobile money agents have found success with last-mile agency networks that are powered by NIBSS and SANEF networks. Super agents are driving almost N100b a day in transaction value. Who built the SANEF? The Nigerian banks.

To avert the risks of systemic failure in the financial system, nine Nigerian banks in partnership with Dun & Bradstreet, a global provider of credit information products and services, and IFC formed Nigeria’s Credit Reference Company in 2007. The largest Nigerian digital lenders desperately depend on the data from these credit bureaus to guide the underwriting of the multi-billion loan portfolios. Who built the credit bureaus? The Nigerian banks.

Interswitch was founded as  a national ISO switch for cards and ATM switching. Interswitch consequently grew into bills payments and a mass of various API services. The company routes a significant portion of traffic for super agents and web payments companies. Who funded Interswitch at creation? The Nigerian banks.

Banks compete. Banks collaborate. Banks win.

There are twenty-two (22) commercial banks in Nigeria that serve the 70m Nigerians with financial access. The sheer size of the Nigerian banking industry is partly attributable to the mad pressure it places on its employees to open and drive deposits in their bank accounts. Yet, Nigerian banks are experts in collaborative competition. They go aggressively after the same customers but understand the power of an ecosystem play.  They have learned that collaboration creates a multiplier effect and allows everyone to reach their destination faster. Their collaboration reinforces users’ trust in the financial system, discouraging fraudsters from exploiting the system. 

Distrustful competition. Negative synergy.

The Nigerian Fintechs industry is young and growing. Being in the early growth phase, there is this tendency to compete rather than to collaborate. Yet, it makes more sense to collaborate; your competitor isn’t your enemy.

Take digital lenders, most of whom get shafted every day by bad borrowers but never share data or with credit bureaus. They are so bitter about their losses they would rather other lenders suffer the same fate. But guess what, the bad borrowers continue to rampage them while the market struggles to grow. Increasing interest rates to cover the losses only exacerbates the vicious cycle of adverse selection. 

Web payments collections are another example. Nigeria is rife with fraud of bad actors using stolen identities to raid victims’ accounts and subsequently have the funds usually moved through Fintech digital wallets. While banks typically have a BVN blacklist and actively help each other with account blockage and funds recovery, Fintechs don’t work with each other. Subsequently, the same gangs of fraudsters go around marauding the Fintechs while life-threatening chargebacks are levied against them.

Lastly, while banks routinely band together for collective bargaining of common services or products (POS, ATMs, etc.), the Fintechs continue to undermine each other with pricing. Subsequently, every time there is a downward trend in pricing, the Fintech partner to banks takes most of the commercial haircut. Why are they not able to agree on a common industry price and hold their own?

I’m smarter than you. I can do it alone.

There is this tendency for the Fintechs to want to go alone, each trying to outshine the next rather than share data and lessons to aid one another to succeed. This could be due to the developing market and the fact that the success of one or two Fintechs naturally leads to the creation of tens of similar Fintech, subsequently competing for the same market share. In Paytech, there are three popular players but their successes have led to over 30 businesses getting approval or approval in principle to operate similar businesses. So, it’s conceivable for the few that have succeeded to refuse any collaboration. 

Rethink the game. Collaborate.

Collaboration creates synergies that are hard to individually pull off and this should be obvious to the Fintechs within the Nigerian and African ecosystem. Fintechs could learn from established markets like the US where Paypal’s success was due to its widespread adoption and partnership with eBay. 

The time has also come for the emergence of big-picture and open-minded thinking among Fintechs.