Nigeria’s 200m+ population is a scam

Nigerians recently got a massive shock about something that some of us in the industry already knew to be true for years: Glo’s subscriber numbers were always nothing but a mirage.

Quite a number of us had always suspected Glo’s touted customer base to be ghosts or ogbanje subscribers. But this only became glaring when the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) enforced its rule that a phone line would only be considered to be active only if it’s been used within the last three months. After this, Glo’s numbers fell from the sky. Their reported active subscribers dropped from 62.1 million to 19.1 million. 

Crazy, right? Absolutely. It had everyone wondering what the hell happened.

But for those of us who’ve been in the industry long enough, it wasn’t exactly surprising. Glo’s numbers never seemed to add up and it was easy to see they weren’t being truthful. It was probably easiest for those in banking to uncover this ruse faster than others—phone numbers tied to banking services for SMS alerts, or even alerts for other everyday services, are usually people’s most important  numbers. And for those who get to see things from the inside, when you analyze the breakdown, most of those numbers customers provide are MTN numbers, followed by Airtel, then some Glo, and if you look with a microscope, you’ll find a few 9mobile customers.

Funny enough, six or seven years ago, you’d probably have seen more 9mobile (they were called Etisalat at the time) numbers than Glo. But this was before 9mobile (Etisalat) ran into some FX trouble and the Arabian owners dug themselves into a gilded 6-foot grave. When we pair the NCC’s directive with Isa Pantami’s enforcement of the National Identification Number (NIN) policy (every phone line needs to be linked to the user’s NIN in order to remain active), Glo’s drop was inescapable. With 156 million active lines in Nigeria today, and many Nigerians owning more than one phone line, the truth about telcos’ inflated subscriber figures is out in the open now.

But the thing is that nobody cares what caused Glo’s numbers to decline so dramatically. That’s not the real story here. The real story is that this scandal is part of a larger pattern of exaggeration when it comes to numbers in Nigeria: how rich a guy is; a girl’s body count; and the population of Nigeria.

Glo’s scandal merely mirrors the bigger issue; that just like Glo, Nigeria’s population figures have also been bloated for the longest time.

In Nigeria, the numbers will look you in the eye and tell you the dirtiest lies ever. Don’t be deceived. 

Nigeria 2006 census results (by geo-political zone)

Geo-political Zones	Population (million)	Percentage of Population
North-Central	20.3	14.51%
North-East	18.9	13.52%
North-West	35.9	25.58%
South-East	16.3	11.68%
South-South	21.0	14.99%
South-West	27.7	19.74%
Northern Zones	75.2	53.60%
Southern Zones	65.1	46.40%

Nigeria total projected population (2006 – 2022)

Years	Projected population
2006	140,431,790
2007	144,636,162
2008	148,987,688
2009	153,408,431
2010	157,898,421
2011	162,450,998
2012	167,054,454
2013	171,704,412
2014	176,438,990
2015	181,248,792
2016	186,121,277
2017	191,053,912
2018	196,042,933
2019	201,135,262
2020	206,283,338
2021	211,493,324
2022	216,783,381

Sources: 

National Population Commission, National Bureau of Statistics, Demographic Statistics Bulletin 2022, Dataphyte

There are only 138 million people in Nigeria!

About five/six years ago, Prof. Olayinka David-West introduced me to Tunde Akin Moses and Chidinma Okaniru who were both MBA students at Lagos Business School (LBS), to conduct an intriguing research project to take a closer look at Nigeria’s population numbers and find a plausible figure for the total population in the country. The conclusion of our research was that despite what the official figures claimed, Nigeria’s population shouldn’t have exceeded 138 million at that time.

The major red flag was the year-on-year consistency of regional population ratios. Nigeria hasn’t conducted a census since 2006, yet the figures follow a predictable pattern. Compare this with other countries which conduct censuses every 10 years or, even better, rely on accurate records of births and deaths to track their populations. Nigeria, however, seems to keep projecting numbers without accounting for the significant demographic and economic shifts.

Just pause for a moment and think about the changes over the last few decades: significant urbanization over the last 40 years, increased rural-urban migration as people continue to seek access to better service coverage and economic opportunities, and young people emigrating in droves, AKA japa.

The population projections we rely on are based on the 2006 census which was probably an exaggeration. Even then, there were suspicions and the Governor of Lagos State at that time, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, openly challenged the census results, commissioning one for Lagos, which estimated 17.1 million people—roughly the same as the reported population for Kano. How??

Let’s do some quick population maths

Today, we have about 156 million reported active phone numbers, so let’s break that down. Many Nigerians own more than one SIM card, so if we assume an average of 1.5 numbers per person, we’re looking at around 100 million individuals using phones. SIM cards are so cheap and accessible that almost everyone has a phone line.

If we estimate that nearly every Nigerian aged 13 and above has a phone, that gives us around 100 million adults and another 10–20 million children and with a buffer, Nigeria’s population should logically fall somewhere around 130 million. So where did we get this 200+ million we keep reciting? These aren’t definitive numbers, these are my conclusions based on observable trends and logic, not a blind acceptance of official claims. I stand to be corrected but you can read more about how I arrived at this figure before you come for me.

The reality is that Nigeria’s population might not be as large as we’ve been told, and the telco data provides a new lens to scrutinize these figures. 

Why inflate population figures …

Especially when it makes our GDP per capita look worse? 

The short answer is: incentives. Let me break it down:

Allocation of resources and national benefits

In Nigeria, population figures are tied to the distribution of national resources. The number of local governments, House of Representatives seats, and even federal revenue allocation are linked to population size per region. A region with a higher reported population typically receives more funding for infrastructure, healthcare, education, and other essential services, so they may inflate their figures to secure a larger share of the national moi-moi.

Financial incentives

Beyond resource allocation, there’s a financial motivation for inflating population figures. At its core, this is about influence and control. Larger populations mean more political power, which translates into more opportunities to direct financial benefits toward a region or group. Politicians and policymakers from areas with inflated populations can use these numbers to lobby for more projects, grants, etc.

Influence on election outcomes

Elections in Nigeria rely heavily on population figures to determine the distribution of polling units, voter registration, and voting power. Regions with inflated numbers can justify a larger number of registered voters and secure more polling units, making it easier to influence election outcomes.

Attractiveness to international organizations for funding and aid

On the international stage, a larger population creates the impression of a country with significant needs, making it more attractive to international organizations that offer funding, aid, or loans. The governments and agencies can use these higher figures to negotiate for larger financial packages, claiming these are necessary to support the growing population.

Each of these incentives creates a system where inflated population figures are actively pursued and instead of addressing the country’s real demographic needs, the numbers are propped up to serve political agendas.

Nigeria is worse off as the giant of Africa: Let’s shrink to grow

Contrary to what those at the helm of affairs believe, we’d actually be better off if Nigeria’s population turned out to be smaller than what we’ve been led to believe. Here’s why:

For starters, some of our vanity metrics would improve. Per capita GDP, for instance, would likely double. Of course, this won’t immediately make our lives better, but it would significantly enhance Nigeria’s economic outlook; which could open up new opportunities for us.

A smaller population figure also means fewer resources are needed to support everyone and a better chance at improving the overall quality of life.

Right now, Nigeria’s actual population is probably around 60% of the reported numbers. A proper census will reveal the truth and help us to make more informed decisions as a nation. Accurate data is critical for planning, and policy formulation that genuinely address our needs.

For this to happen, we’d need a well-executed population census, ideally built on top of the successful  (surprise!) National ID—maybe Tinubu will decide to fund one next year. Who knows?

And when we do discover that the numbers are false, I don’t think anyone should be punished even though they lied. What’s done is done. Let’s just focus on building a better country. 

But irrespective of this long story, what I know for sure is that Nigeria’s population numbers, as they stand today, are a scam. 

I’ll be waiting for anyone who wants to tell me differently.