10 predictions for digital payments in 2018

Here are my top 10 predictions for the digital payment industry in 2018.  These predictions are presented in no particular order and have been influenced by my interactions with the evolution of payments and other experts I work with. They are strictly limited to Nigeria because going beyond the border into the Benin Republic would quickly expose my foolery.

Yes, I know that prediction is a fool’s game especially when my metaphysical skills are zero. What stops me from throwing my hat into the prediction game for the year ahead? After all, seeing the future is not more accurate than a bunch of monkeys typing out a Shakespeare. Who cares?
On the serious side, though, it’s likely that any of these following could happen. But if the predictions don’t happen, please, don’t hold me accountable. I am warning you upfront!

#1 Alat gets a (bigger) challenger

Wema had a fantastic year with Alat; it’s digital bank that everyone loves or pretend not to love. When the news broke out that Wema would be launching a digital bank, many sniggered, but hey, they’ve a fantastic run. Sometimes before the middle of 2018, though, expect at least two banks to join in the digital banking fray. After all, Wema has done the homework for everyone and posted the result on the billboard. The new banks would dodge Alat’s missteps (very few) and amplify their successes (many). It could be bloody as they are all going for the same middle-class disloyal customer base. You can still join the survey.

#2 PSD2 instigates Open Banking

PSD2 will go live by January 13 and it would have hiccups for months. Nevertheless, expect waves of open banking initiatives to hit other countries. Nigeria already has one in the offing with https://openbanking.ng. The need for easier integration, the pain of which has been a major obstacle to Nigerian Fintechs and their rose-tinted world-changing ideas, would drive that openness.

#3 Maturity comes to Fintech

The Fintech space would become more matured as local funds start to make plays. So far, it has been more of hype and hyperboles. Irrespective of the sexiness of Fintech stardoms, real problems exist to be solved by the challengers. The market would weed out the wannabes and lightweights. The Venture Capitals who got burned from letting their Fintech run riots would bring sanity and governance. That should attract new investors. Watch out for new seed funders such as Microtraction and Itanna.

#4 Smaller Fintechs instigates price war

The cost of electronic transactions dropped significantly this year, and that spurred a massive increase in transaction counts. Of course, you can’t disown the impressive improvements in success rates of POS, ATM and interbank transactions. Nevertheless, smaller players are still having a tough time enjoying part of this goodies. There would be more growth in 2018. However, as electronic transactions count gets higher, expect another wave of pricing reduction, triggered by the smaller Fintechs who are fighting for customers and eyeballs.

#5 Bitcoins bubble explodes, killing many

2017 has been a wild ride for Bitcoins and other cryptos. Many of those who asked me to mortgage my house but I didn’t listen to are already saying “Deji, you are a loser, we told you so.” I still think cryptocurrencies’ bubble (Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc.), will finally explode, making a loud splat sound, taking down many alongside with their savings. Enough said.

#6 International players come to lunch

International heavy-weights will follow the likes of Opera (who has reportedly bought Paycom PIDO) to make investments in Nigeria. And it’s not difficult to see the reason: our payment and digital transaction space smoked hot all through the 12 months of 2017. Many learned the hard lesson of not staking out Nigeria when there is a chance to do so. Now that the FX has been stable getting in and out is easier. Still, should likes of  Alibaba, Tencent, and other Chinese super Fintechs show up, our digital space would never be the same again.

#7 Android supports pay with Paga

While Android phones have ruled the world and they are local chieftains in Nigeria, most phone users are stuck with free apps not because they are stingy (well, we are stingy, jo!) they can’t easily pay for apps. Cards get bounced, wallets are not available, PayPal is sketchy, but the good old bank accounts are not allowed to the party. In 2018, expect local payment methods (accounts, wallets, and mobile money) to become available within Android, Amazon (Longshot), Facebook, and Apple Pay (Longshot). Efforts from likes of WeCashUp could yield fruits to bring international payments to smaller payment schemes.

#8 Fraudsters get a beating

The increase in electronic frauds has been trending well with the explosion in digital payments. While there have been efforts to collaborate to suppress, 2018 would be the year this comes to a head and expect very serious and deliberate collaboration between banks and Fintechs. Already, CBN and banks have come up with the BVN Watchlist and other private initiatives, such as Stop Fraud Africa, are coming up with online real-time APIs to stop fraudsters at their games.

#9 Retail digital lending become prevalent

Retail credit has been a tricky game for Nigerian banks. Everyone complains that banks don’t give loans except you have an account with them, spend months and even years tending the account and then when that time comes, it takes forever to process the loan after you must have submitted tons of documents including your DNA test result. That is changing with likes of Access Bank PayDay Loan which gives instant credit just by dialing USSD code * 901 * 11 #. Expect more banks and lenders to join the instant credit bandwagon, after all, Access Bank didn’t die from doing it.

#10 AI to the customer service’ rescue

The banality of customer service can drive the most patient human to madness and as such many are experimenting with AIs to help customers faster. The proliferation of simple to start, free to use, and easy to deploy AI platforms, such as DialogFlow, Flow.ai, engati.com, etc. means this could become an easy game for everyone. Access Bank has Tamara, expect other big players to go live with an AI system before the middle of the year. In fact, if you are a bank or Fintech but don’t have an AI system by December 2018, you are probably not in the game.

Dropbox banking: The backbone for Fintechs and a probable model for banking in the future

The argument about if Fintechs and Banks are frenemies would never end. And it’s justifiably so.

Retail banks have a model of providing checking, savings, investment account services. Of course, they layer that with credit cards, personal loans, mortgages, etc. Fintech showing up on the scene means one thing, banks would be losers. There isn’t any clearer way to say it.

Think about it this way, banks earn money from these services and would want to continue that way. Fintechs showing they could do it better means they also want to gain something as well. So, any of these could happen: banks would lose, and Fintechs could gain; Fintechs and banks would gain from increased service cost and customers would pay more; Fintechs would lose, and banks would be cool.

There is also the friction that comes with who owns the customer experience. Most banks loathe to see new players sandwich between them and the customers and would prefer to control every single data point. On the flip side, when customers start to use apps for Personal Financial Management and their bank accounts, they start seeing the banks as a repository of their funds or provider of loans.

Retail banks don’t even trust Fintechs as their services tend to aggregate and disintermediate. None of the banks want to be a bucket for storage.
But wait, why not?

The traditional model makes losers out of the retail banks for Fintechs to win, maybe the only way would be to have a new type of bank, modeled from grounds up to take away the arguments of retail banks.

So imagine a bank, fully licensed but whose interaction is via APIs that Fintech and others can use to connect to it. Fintechs are the actual customers because the banks help them to hold their customers’ funds and loans in compliance with the regulation.

Dropbox was happy to become the programmatic storage for many apps, and that cemented its position in the world of cloud storage. Of course, Google Drive, Box, Microsoft OneDrive, etc. support the same approach but nothing represents personal commodity storage more than Dropbox.

A bank, fashioned after Dropbox, could have the same model and would face no pressure to compete with Fintechs but be the backbone for them. Such a bank, with no direct customer interface, would be barebones to run with the most minimal of operational overhead.

Could this be a viable model?

If this model works, then it’s possible that the future of banking will be the gradual transformation to the utility company providing services to the Fintechs who will own the customers. Nevertheless, there may not be a total elimination of the traditional model though, or one where all banks become a full-scale utility.

The harsh reality for Fintechs is that banks still own the customers’ trust for now and that counts for a lot.

Being a utility player offers no room for differentiation, and it simply becomes a case of the best bank offering ease and variety of API integration (across the various requirements of the Fintechs – Risk and Regulatory Compliance – i.e.  KYC, AML, security of deposits, etc.).

What is likely to happen is more of a gradual acceptance of the Fintechs services as options for customers in areas where the banks may not have the capabilities. For example, Santander is selling SME lending via Kabbage or providing Personal Financial Management via Meniga, the ultimate Fintech bank that will provide an integrated suite of all the customers’ required financial services may just not be on the horizon yet.

But it will be interesting to see how this pans out for the future of banking.

#Note
Contributions from Ladi Asuni

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Getting them high: Challenges of onboarding customers to digital services

Digital services, which include cards, online banking, mobile apps for finances, USSD for transferring money you don’t have, etc., are essential services. In fact, financial inclusion has been elevated to the level of fundamental human rights. However, unlike things we derive joy from using – Whatsapp, Tinder, Facebook, to mention a few, digital services are like toothpaste; nobody gets too emotional about them – you just want them to be affordable, available, easy to use and then get them out of the way before you lose your mind. That is if you have a mind to start with.
Challenges facing purveyors
But then, the horror eating at digital bankers, the unloved purveyors of FinTech (Ok, I want to stop using this buzzword, it’s no longer cool) products and other financial thingamajigs, is the low onboarding or usage rate despite a captive market. When I say captive market, I’m talking about banks with large customer bases but whose customers just don’t sign up for electronic services. You would think customers love going to those crowded and nightmarish banking halls. Hell, freaking no! They continue to complain about having to visit branches to get things done. To make matters worse, even the tellers in the branches aren’t smiling or friendly, so what’s the point?
What customers want
I know quite a bit about what customers want with digital services because I’m one of them. As crazy as it sounds, I’m a customer, so I’m speaking for the hordes of ill-served and hapless customers.
The average user isn’t a techie, but yet products and services are designed such that you need to be a professor to figure things out. How to get the products is never clear; the screen flow is more complicated than flying a space shuttle, and the error messages leave you scratching your head. I can imagine how hard that is going to be for bald customers. For example, the password instructions about using special characters, upper, middle and lower cases, etc. can drive even the most patient Moses impersonator to tears. Why can’t I choose a password I’m more comfortable with? After all, if I use a complicated password and my money gets stolen, the bank still won’t be doing a refund.
By the way, using passwords such as Password123, for example, is like painting a big fat red ‘X’ on your back and then taking an evening stroll through a war zone.
Customers want convenience so asking me to visit a branch to request internet and mobile access is just, pardon my language, insane. Until someone explains why Facebook and Whatsapp never set up offices to sign up users, but my bank has to force me to endure the unfriendly Customer Service Officer, I won’t ever understand this. The pseudo-professionals talk of security and risk management, I only see mental laziness. While the risks have not disappeared, banks have launched USSD services, virtually all via self-enrollment, and the world is yet to end. Why the same approach can’t be used for all other electronic services baffles me.
My accounts have simple ten digit numbers, but the various digital banking services require different profiles and credentials. The multiple systems don’t talk to each other or even know my preferences. Does it make sense to have a different username and password for the internet and mobile services? Why can’t I manage my cards within these applications?
And the most annoying thing ever? – Even after I have taken Keke Marwa to visit the branch, endured the overzealous security guard, prayed through 10 chapters of Psalms that the branch doesn’t get hit by robbers on the day I visit, complete a form that stretches over a thousand pages, made to fill all my information over and over again, sign in 10 different places and then, oh, the customer service officer says “you have to come back to get your token as we have to make a request to head office.” Darn it!
Why digital initiatives and products have failed
Of course, customers aren’t idiots, so they rebelled against the products, come to the branches to cause trouble and continue to add to the blood pressure of digital bankers when they have to explain their weak numbers at monthly performance meetings.
My opinions on why things failed are few:
It starts from the top. Senior management and executives don’t understand the retail customers. In their rarefied offices, they practically get everything done for them. If you don’t walk in your customers’ shoes, you can’t get things done for them. In fact, let’s take a bet; if you work in a bank and 50% of your senior management use digital products regularly, I’ll give up my salary for next month.
Many products are developed by techies, who obviously have orgasms making complex products than serving dumb customers like me. The world has moved beyond digital products being hobbyist items; experts in customer experience and human computer interaction need to work on the flows and processes that are simple and a joy to use. Banks and FinTech (oops, I used the word again!) have to start doing product management and not product delivery.
Risk management is essential but isn’t everything. Every business has an element of risk; if you don’t want to get bruised, don’t play games. Many of the processes and product requirements are designed by sadists who think risk avoidance is the same as risk management. Not to be hard on them, if you have ever seen a massive fraud once in your career, you could be worse than them. Trust me, EFCC cells don’t have air conditioners.
Data practice is poor, and customer information is scattered everywhere in database silos. The silo data means the customer’s phone number on the card management system is different from the one on that of internet banking; the address filed on the mobile app request form was never updated into the core banking application; the madness goes on and on.
Making life easy for everyone
It’s not all doom and gloom. The strides made by some banks, especially those leading the USSD trail (GTBank, Fidelity, Access, Zenith, etc.) have shown that when the right mindset is applied, magic can happen. The simple workflow and self-service options for USSD banking have been so successful that it has led to over 200% growth for interbank transactions in 2016 alone.
Banks should develop integrated products or make efforts to integrate what they already have. Let the ATM know that I have the mobile app; let the mobile app be able to change my card PIN (yes!), set limits and allow me to make requests from my phone.
Processes that involve branch visits should be streamlined; Forms should be designed by humans (not sadists) and for humans; requirements should be clear and reasonable.  For instance, setting up a company online banking profile, with various mandate instructions remotely, will always be difficult but not impossible. At least, that process shouldn’t be an attempt at mental genocide.
Banks should clean up their data and also implement a single-source of truth. It’s never going to be done in a flash, but the process can start now.
FinTech and banks should understand what risk management is. Instead of making things too loose (FinTech) or too hard (Banks), elements of quantitative and qualitative risk assessments should be applied, and banks should learn to set a portion of income aside for fraud and loss compensations.
Things can change
The frenetic pace of changes over the last few years is an indication of things to come. I honestly believe that many of the issues outlined above can be resolved. After all, we didn’t get here in one weekend.  Additionally, the regulatory demands of Cashless would drive the banks, financial service providers and the average Nigerian towards more robust digital services.