SANEF is the holy grail of financial inclusion in Nigeria

Financial inclusion has always been a bone to grind in Nigeria since as far as anyone could remember. However, the big push began in Nigeria in 2012 when Nigeria developed its National Financial Inclusion Strategy (NFIS) with the aim of enhancing easy access to a broad range of financial services for Nigerians that meet their needs at an affordable cost. 

This strategy followed the alarming findings of the EFInA Access to Financial Services in Nigeria 2010 Survey, which revealed that 46.3% of the adult population in Nigeria was financially excluded with no access to formal or informal services. The survey also revealed that bank proximity was of greater concern to the rural population, 78.8% of whom were unbanked.

The vast swaths of Nigerians disenfranchised from financial services were undoubtedly concerning for key stakeholders but by 2018, the percentage of the unbanked adult population had risen to 63% from 30% in 2010. Significant, but not quite there yet. The financial inclusion movement has been on an upward trajectory, however, in the last six years, we’ve seen something truly incredible. 

Agents and Mobile Money Operators have transformed financial inclusion efforts in Nigeria and the financial ecosystem in its entirety, for good. Agency banking has been instrumental in financially including the informal sector and rural areas faster and more effectively than the brick-and-mortar branches could have done. Agent networks have been more successful in penetrating the rural communities, essentially taking banks to the people who were unable or unwilling to come to them. The latest evidence of this decisive success is Moniepoint’s newly attained unicorn status on the back of servicing the financially excluded via its agent network.

I can argue that this success can be accrued to Nigerian banks and their sometimes, reclusive invention, Shared Agent Network Expansion Facilities (SANEF).

Who is SANEF?

SANEF was created by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and deposit money banks (DMBs); funded with the money from the 10% of Profit After Tax (PAT) that CBN mandates banks to put into an SME fund. It first started as a project in February 2018 was then formally incorporated and launched in January 2019 with Ronke Kuye, who transformed GTBank into a digital powerhouse, appointed to run it. They were already making significant moves in 2018 and I predicted that SANEF would become a surprising success. 

My digital babalawo saw it coming!

SANEF was set up to do one thing: expand the agent network to bring financial services closer to every Nigerian to increase financial access across Nigeria and set a common standard for stakeholders to be able to get this done. This is what they set out to do and they have been incredibly successful. SANEF was the driving force of the standardization of agency networks in Nigeria and they helped all the super agents to be able to connect to NIBSS and banks so agency banking could thrive like it is today.

From their inception in January 2019 to August 2024, they grew the number of agents from 83,560 to 1.92 million, with agents present in each geopolitical zone and all 774 Local Government Areas and over 3.5 billion transactions completed via agent locations in that time. From this, we have seen over 19.3 million accounts and over 20 million wallets opened at agent locations and an impressive 57.3% increase in the number of registered Bank Verification Numbers (BVNs). The agent/100,000 adult population ratio also grew from 62 to 1,810.

The explosive coverage facilitated by SANEF over the last few years validates that a significant proportion of excluded and underserved Nigerians were ready to consume financial products and services; all they needed was access.

Agency banking: the financial innovation Nigeria desperately needed

We have seen the transformation leaders in this ecosystem like Moniepoint, Opay and MTN’s MoMo have ushered in, alongside heavy hitters in SANEF’s network like PalmPay,Nomba, Fairmoney MFB, LAPO MFB, etc. It is a long list of super agents doing great stuff. These are manifestations of the work SANEF is doing, plugging the personal banking and microlending gaps that traditional banking could not hack for the formally and financially excluded.

I remember when Palmpay first entered the scene and it almost seemed like you could find a small group of Palmpay agents at every corner. If you take an Uber or Bolt ride and request for the driver’s number, almost 9 out of 10 times, they give you an Opay account number. This is the same thing with neighbourhood supermarkets and corner shops; you pull out your card to pay and it is almost always met with a Moniepoint POS.

It is also important to note that most of this was achieved with very little fancy marketing. These players created services seemingly so basic but super great, paired that with ease and access and now the numbers speak for themselves—super agents now make up 43.3% of the market.

These numbers are impressive but not all that surprising. Super agents, in collaboration with SANEF have been able to successfully execute a sustainable method for Nigeria’s financial inclusion drive; bringing financial services to the last mile customers and empowering them with access to banking and credit facilities within their immediate environment. No more travelling long distances just to wait in long queues at the few physical branches around.

This drive has been instrumental to advancing the spread of financial services, giving people easy access to money and credit for sustenance and productive activities. This improved inclusion is essential to tackling poverty, promoting economic growth and enhancing social welfare of the Nigerian populace; all of which align with the move towards achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Although the end user enjoys the most visible benefits of this strategy, financial institutions are not left out. The agency banking model offers a more cost-effective method of delivering services. Agents are a cheaper, faster and more easily accessible channel for banks as opposed to setting up physical branches. Acquiring more customers at lower costs also bodes well for their revenue figures. 

Additionally, the impact on the overall economy cannot be missed. The boots on the ground needed to continue this work means more business and employment opportunities for those who set up agency banking businesses in their communities. I am also an aggressive advocate for credit and more people being able to access credit to take care of their needs and do business, strengthens our economy and puts us on a path to prosperity. 

Unfortunately, a lot of bad things happen on Agent networks

While agency banking is a great tool for driving financial inclusion in Nigeria, this strategy is not without its fair share of human tragedies. Naturally, the use of third-parties to facilitate financial transactions exposes the institutions and end users to certain risks. Agents are typically non-bank employees with little to no experience within the formal financial systems and just enough training to operate the tools they need to deliver basic financial services. So, the expected standards of confidentiality and responsible and ethical handling of customers’ financial data are constantly threatened. Some of the consequences of this we have seen include the agent network being used as the last mile for fraud and theft, including BVN fraud.

We also cannot leave out that the major driving force for agency banking is having boots on the ground, and like all other human beings, agents can be ruthless. This was confirmed on a large scale during the Naira cash shortage earlier in 2023. Agents took advantage of this crisis to shaft Nigerians by charging exorbitant withdrawal fees that went as high as over 30%. This was the worst of it, but such exploitation still happens daily with agents who discriminate charges based on location or customer profile; charging arbitrary and unpredictable fees for transactions. 

However, with constant education, engagements and monitoring, which make up a significant part of the work SANEF is doing, we can expect the relevant culture and ethics from the formal financial sector to gradually become a part of how agents conduct their businesses within the ecosystem. 

The future of agency banking with SANEF

The journey ahead will be characterised by continued growth, however, it may slow down as the adoption of agency banking becomes more widespread and the ecosystem reaches maturity. The ecosystem can also expect bad actors to be weeded out. 

Unfortunately, this maturity means that marginal players may lose out as the market becomes more saturated. The agent networks started by catering to basic banking services, but we have seen them evolve to extend more financial services like credit, merchant payments and other use cases when combined with mobile wallets. As the ecosystem matures, the market will be met with an increase in competition and customer appetite for more advanced financial  services, which smaller players may struggle to keep up with, without substantial investment in technology and service expansion. As a result, they risk losing relevance or being phased out entirely as more established providers like the Moniepoints and Opays of this world, dominate the space.

A few years from now, the success of agency banking for business banking will be more pronounced. Although, as a result of the ecosystem’s leaning towards digital payments, agency banking providers might eventually cut out the middlemen (agents) and serve the customers and businesses initially welcomed into the ecosystem through the agent networks, directly. Fully digitized platforms for business transactions like digital storefronts and web checkouts that providers like Paystack and Flutterwave seem to have locked down, will be prominent in the future. 

SANEF has done commendable work using agency networks as a tool to increase financial inclusion in Nigeria and the populace has shown great acceptance of this model to meet their financial needs. 

However, we still have a long way to go, especially with penetrating the Northeastern region of Nigeria. But who shall bell that cat?

10 Predictions for Digital Payments in 2022

In 2022, Nigeria’s fintech sector will see WhatsApp possibly entering payments, MTN’s PSB dominating, free transfers boosting financial inclusion, and open banking disrupting APIs. FX transactions may shift to P2P, NIN could replace BVN, lending heats up with big banks joining, and new unicorns emerging. Visa might buy Interswitch, and Mastercard could acquire Etranzact, reshaping Nigeria’s financial landscape.

It’s 5 years since I’ve been shilling my predictions, and here again, are my top 10 predictions for 2022. Although, if any of them comes through, I owe you a beer.

As always, even though nobody pays attention, these predictions are largely educated guesses being that I have an advantage of seeing a lot from the wobbly perch on which I sit. But then, my candid advice is to take them with a grain of salt.

Now let’s dive into what Oracle has predicted for the coming year.

#1 A global giant comes to play. I will pay you with WhatsApp

Stripe came in 2020 to buy Paystack but not to play. But in 2022, my blurry eyes see a global player coming to play big time. But then why would a global player come? The market is hot as hell; alternative payments methods such as virtual accounts have proven to be very successful; API players like OnePipe and Mono are doing very well and shipping data around like smugglers, and lastly, open banking would go live once the standards are approved by the CBN. There is simply no better time to be here. My bets are on WhatsApp to come back with payments within their chat app. WhatsApp isn’t a stranger to payments; they have started, albeit with limited success, in Brazil and India.

#2 MTN launches PSB. Only a few super agents are left standing. Top 5 banks on notice

I predicted that MTN would get its license and they did. Give me a round of applause! Karl, the CEO of MTN, is a ruthless executioner and following the spanking that banks gave him last year on USSD, he has more than enough incentives to do a good job. And he will; never keep Karl behind your back. MTN would drive its PSB so hard and super agents so amazingly, they would quickly suck the oxygen out of the market. The prediction here is that I expect a rapid decimation of the super agents when MTN’s PSB goes live. I’m super curious about who Karl would anoint as the CEO of the bank though; I smell some ex-orange colored EDs who know all the tricks of the traditional banks and where dead bodies can be buried.

Disclosure: I bought some MTN shares and I’m rooting for them.

#3 Transfers become free. Financial inclusion becomes a reality

I don’t know if this is a prediction or a wish list because even if it doesn’t want to come to pass by itself, I’m going to devote part of my energy to it in 2022 to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the premise is simple – make transfers below a certain amount free for everyone and you have a good chance of bringing financial inclusion to every Nigerian. CBN did this for ATMs and it was a success (bankers hated it though) and they may be tempted to do it next year too. The last time the cost of transfer went down to N10, the market jumped like drops of water inside the hot oil.

#4 Open banking goes live. API players are shaken off the tree

CBN has been cooking this for so long it’s almost burning on the stove. Finally, the standards are approved, released, and banks are mandated to implement them in 10 days 😁. Now, open banking is significantly more comprehensive, faster, and safer than the APIs being sold by my friends. And because only licensed players would be allowed, the market may shake some old API providers out of the market the way mobile internet killed business centers (if you were born after I graduated, please ask your uncle).

Disclosure: I’m a Trustee at Open Banking Nigeria and deeply connected to the regulatory efforts to spin up open APIs in Nigeria.

#5 FX goes the crypto way. P2P FX transactions power investment apps. CBN is upset

CBN is like the financial Thor of Nigeria, its hammer can smash the densest head. It came after crypto earlier in the year, but they survived and went underground where no hammers can touch them. The hammer then came after FX jugglers; just ask what happened to abokifx.com. But we need FX or how do I pay my subscriptions or buy Tesla shares? As the need for FX has refused to go away, some players may borrow a leaf from the p2p play that saved crypto in Nigeria. Could that, in one move, be the end of CBN’s control of retail FX in Nigeria? While some investment apps may have gotten an injunction to prevent CBN from locking their accounts up, trust them to throw a party if p2p can save their business model.

#6 NIN dethrones BVN as the ID of choice. CBN’s fear about data comes true

CBN is super worried about how and what fintechs are doing with BVN; anyone with half a brain would be worried at how easy BVN data can be gotten and misused. So, they got NIBSS to clamp down on BVN; unfortunately, there are no better alternatives for fintechs. Well, NIN came along with fresher data and wider coverage. The only problem is NIN being government property means data security and privacy may be poor. Soon, a major breach happens and DSS is called to fish out fintech founders.

#7 Lending becomes hot. Bigger banks jump in. Bigger banks get shocked.

Nigeria has a N74 trillion credit gap which is flashing eyes at prospective lenders. Even though many lenders have taken bad advantage of borrowers so much that even regulators have to weigh in, the demand for consumer and SME credit continues to surge. At least 5 top 10 banks, being the jealous type, would jump in without looking, but with disastrous consequences. They will fail because their loans would be packed like corporate bank credits.

Disclosure: I’m deeper into lending tech than the Marianna trench. And Sterling (Spectra), Access (QuickBucks), and FCMB (Credit Direct) have been doing consumer credit at scale before my last child was born.

#8 Market goes super-hot. New unicorns are born. Old players die

2021 was a year of growth for the fintech market and the conditions for a hot 2022 have been laid down – #1 the API business model gets proven (Mono and OnePipe raised $19m between themselves); #2 CBN released tons of licenses for new payments providers; #3 virtual account became a prime payments method, and #4 the folks that raised cash must show investors growth. What do you think the torrid combination of this means for next year? The market becomes competitive like crazy; fintechs would use dollars as weapons to snap talents and do marketing; larger and ballsy fintechs may start doing their APIs directly, bypassing Mono and others. When the smoke clears, the battlefield would be full of dead bodies. But I see the new players being victorious and crowned as unicorns. And the older players? Any of them born before 2015 is likely to slink into oblivion.

#9 Visa buys Interswitch

I’m predicting this for the third year in a row; maybe if I say it enough it would happen. Why do I think so? It just makes sense for various reasons; Naira is at all-time cheap and Interswitch fundamentals is anchored on Naira which makes them cheaper and because they are a grown-ass fintech, they can’t enjoy the 20x EBITDA multiple that smaller and younger fintechs use for their valuation. But then, they are a behemoth, they control 90%+ of ISO card traffic in Nigeria. And sweet old Ms. Visa owns 20% of them to start with. Meanwhile, Mastercard continues to kick Visa’s teeth with their Nigerian market dominance and even the previously smacked Verve is having a resurgence. Therefore, it makes sense for Visa to buy the Switch and just make Verve become Verve by Visa (Ve by Vi, how does that even sound?) But the kicker? Some of the long-term investors are itching to return funds to their limited partners so they would be more than happy to sell to Visa and bid goodbye.

#10 Mastercard buys Etranzact

This prediction is tied to number 9 like the way my daughters are tied to my surname. Once Visa buys the Switch, Mastercard would have to find their way out of there faster than a cat would slink off a hot plate. Of the bunch of payments processors hanging around Nigeria, only Etranzact remains a viable option for Mastercard as they have their servers in every place that’s called a bank. Most of the institutional owners would gladly receive a 3x premium.

Wondering what happened the previous years and the predictions? Read about my takes for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.

Disclosure: I own some bits of Etranzact but if the multiple isn’t at least 5x, nobody should talk to me.

Is Financial Inclusion a Myth?

What if Financial Inclusion is a myth that we have created in our jaded view of what we feel is good for the world’s poor but, does not address their needs or that they do not even need? What if the real problem is that the worlds poor don’t trust these help and they see it as a means of control by the government who want information about everyone for taxation and further subjugation?

Financial Inclusion used to be a hot buzz word, and even years after, it’s still hot enough to warm a pot of coffee. Unfortunately, I haven’t been able to understand it from a viable business model.

Nevertheless, from an altruistic angle, it makes sense to me. It is not out of place for the haves to pay for the transactions of the have-nots so they could bring them to modern living. The World Bank says “Financial Inclusion is a key enabler to reducing poverty and boosting prosperity.”
CGAP believes that Financial Inclusion is about migrating the 2 Billion working-age adults that don’t have accounts with licensed financial institutions to the formal economy where, regardless of income levels, they can have access to savings accounts, insurance, and other financial services needed to transform their lives.

But recently even that understanding of mine has been shaken so profoundly I’m asking myself if Financial Inclusion isn’t a scam.
Before you lob a hand grenade at me, hear me out.

I recently had a conversation that underscored this new position of the possibility that Financial Inclusion could be a scam. Someone asked a poignant question in a group chat – do the financially excluded really want to be financially included? If yes, do they want to be financially included in the form that is being shoved down their throats? That question has been nagging me ever since. I took the liberty to ask a few “financially excluded” people around me and their responses were shocking. They didn’t care for digital payments, wallets, bank, Bitcoin, etc. All they want is real hard cash which they can spend and treasure.

Beyond receiving money from the cities, many of their friends in the villages don’t care about money transfers and other fancy digital thingamajigs.
It is possible I’m totally wrong in all these. It is also possible that this could be a beautiful scam that sounds pretty good to our helpful alter egos.

Financial Inclusion has many challenges – education, infrastructure, cost of transactions, KYC. But something that struck me is that when the need hits the sweet spot, some of these things do catch on. For example, despite some bit of literacy requirement, elitism and cost associated with mobile phones, the usage caught on to almost everyone that only those in the deepest rock caves in Nigeria don’t have them. The numbers on NCC website speak for themselves.
As much as the internet is a luxury in Nigeria, almost everyone is on Whatsapp (it cost money to have data), and there are more Facebook active monthly users than active monthly bank accounts.

Do you think Financial Inclusion is a scam?

What’s killing financial inclusion in Nigeria?

Financial inclusion in Nigeria falls short because products lack accessibility and affordability, ignoring basic needs like free transactions. Understanding the needs of the poor is key to an effective design.

No scholar worth his salt would denigrate his study in the first line, or on any other line for that matter. However, listen carefully, take what I’m going to say below with a pinch of salt as it’s based on armchair projections.

But then who cares?

We are quite a lot in Nigeria, or so says the official and derivative stats. I really don’t buy into the numbers but then nobody gives two flying horse legs about my opinions. With about 180 million hungry souls crammed within the national border, only about 30 million accounts are there in the 20+ odd banks.

Considering that nobody in Nigeria is faithful to anything, especially to their banks, I know finding unique bank customers could slash the numbers down to about 20M. Just a hunch, don’t quote this for your PhD!

The Central Bank of Nigeria, other NGOs and do-good money bags have tried all they could with financial inclusion but it ain’t just hitting that sweet spot. Banks were corralled into the deal, and we came up with Prepaid Cards and Mobile Wallets. Both had as much success as the Zepellin.

On a quiet Sunday morning, after the rain has done about 3 rounds, much more than middle-aged men can cope with these days, I thought about what could have made all the efforts, the bankers, the CBN, flounder like a pricked balloon.

It was just simple. Financial inclusion designed by rich bankers and their friends in Brioni suits just don’t work.

Why? Because financial inclusion products should be accessible and affordable. Unfortunately, they are not.

This is best underscored by a recent conversation I had with one of my banker friends designing a saving product where artisans and others can pay N100 a day to save about N1,000 using their phones. I was like, what the F? I wouldn’t even do that on a regular account!

Which brings us to why the fancy financial inclusion schemes never work. Most were designed with absolutely no idea of what poor people want. But then ain’t difficult to find out, they want basic and affordable financial products.

They want free cash in/cash out.

They want free balance inquiry.

They want free bill payments.

They really don’t give two rats’ legs about cost of transaction.

Oh my, they don’t keep money in balances because like we all know, you can only save when you can afford to. When you live off less than $1 a day, which 70% of us are anyway (who did the enumeration?) you can’t afford to save. When you earn less than N50K a month and you have mouths hungrier than young birds to feed, you can’t save.

So dear banker, if the poor can’t save, there isn’t going to be any float.

If you don’t get any of these above, you can’t design products for poor people, bottom of the pyramid or financial inclusion.

This isn’t Davos, so get off your high horse dude!