Nigeria’s problems will be solved by access to credit

Access to credit has historically been difficult in Nigeria. This is because, for years, big banks were the sole providers of financial services and those banks didn’t care too much for retail banking. 

Between thinking about the risk profile of individuals and smaller business players and the absence of real disincentives against failing to repay loans, banks mainly provided credit facilities to large companies and the rich. It has robbed Nigeria of a unique opportunity to grow its middle class or lift over 100 million of us out of chronic and crushing poverty. 

Credit is a global conversation because it has the potential to be a growth driver for economies. Credit is how people can fund their small business idea, deal with the economic shocks of job losses, or acquire assets. 

In Nigeria where the inflation rate is at a record high of 16.47%, credit maybe even more than a means to grow businesses; it is a tool to manage daily challenges. Food prices are up, fuel prices are up and civil servants who are often routinely owed salaries for months always need to borrow money. 

Many cannot access small loans from the banks they use mainly because the process of getting a bank loan can be complex. Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures and the need to fill numerous forms often means that people do not consider banks as a source of credit.

Instead, many rely on shylock money lenders in their network who charge high-interest rates, so high they are just a shade better than armed robbers. It puts many ordinary people in bad spots. Thankfully, digital lenders are changing situations like this, by giving people access to quick and easy unsecured loans. 

In 2020, FairMoney said it lent $93 million in loans to Nigerians while Carbon said it disbursed N25 billion. Those are impressive figures when you consider that many of those loans are likely under N200,000 ($484). 

Yet, despite the strides, digital lenders are making and the Central Bank of Nigeria’s loan to deposit ratio which is forcing banks to give more loans, we still have some way to go. A few people contend that less than 2% of Nigerians still have access to any type of credit. 

The majority of the world’s 1.7 billion unbanked people live in just five countries; Bangladesh, China, India, Mexico, Nigeria, and Pakistan. How can credit change the lives of people in these countries?

Personal loans for the vulnerable 

In a country like Nigeria where unemployment and underemployment are high, people often need personal loans to feed their families. According to SBM Intelligence, a consulting company in Nigeria, at least 63% of people spend the majority of their income on food. 

Those stark figures explain why people often say that every product in Nigeria competes against food. But it also shows something more important; that a large percentage of people will not be able to meet other needs like rent, healthcare, and entertainment. 

Most of these people who are often underbanked and financially underserved often have no recourse to credit facilities. Many of these people do not even have functional identification so there’s no hope that they can scale the stringent Know Your Customer (KYC) requirements of financial institutions. 

According to the Director-General of the NIMC, Aliyu Aziz, only 38% of Nigerians have any form of identification. It shows you the scale of the problem and it lets you know that despite the big amounts digital lenders are disbursing every year, there’s still a huge unaddressed market. 

Beyond this, when people meet their immediate needs, there’s still a need for credit, but for a different kind; small and medium business financing. 

The SME financing gap

Small and medium businesses account for 96% of businesses and 84% of employment. There are different types of small business owners in Nigeria but a good part of those are people whose businesses often need steady cashflow. 

Many are traders who need working loans to restock their goods or to buy items in anticipation of festive periods. Their loan requirements range from daily loans which they can pay back by the end of the business day to short-term loans.

Right now, there are not a lot of credit options for the informal small or medium business owner save for loans from family, friends or cooperatives of some sort. This is one reason why it is difficult for small businesses to scale in Nigeria; working capital is hard to come by. 

As we move further up the socioeconomic ladder, there are also all sorts of credit gaps that can need to be filled. 

Asset financing for the salaried worker 

Nigerians often need to pay in full whenever they need to buy phones, laptops, televisions, or any other type of asset. It’s often a strain on salaried workers who sometimes are doing just enough to get by.

Sometimes people need to buy some of these gadgets without planning such as when they lose their phones or when their laptops go bad unexpectedly. Asset financing can make situations like this easier.

There have been several attempts to solve this problem by financial institutions but many of the solutions have been criticized for having expensive markups. It has prevented buy now pay later companies from scaling in Nigeria. 

Whenever the financing for these sort of light assets is sorted, the problems get even bigger down the road. 

Car policies vs auto loans 

Nigeria has enacted several policies to encourage car manufacturers to manufacture cars within the country. Some of those policies, like the ban introduced on the import of second-hand cars older than 10 years into the country did not produce the desired results. 

Instead of spurring production, the ban merely made smuggling more profitable and consequently, it drove up the prices of secondhand cars. There have been more auto policies, but nothing has significantly moved the needle. 

In discussing Nigeria’s Finance bill last year, Vice-President Osibanjo said that while Nigeria’s annual vehicle demand was around 720,000, local production currently stands at 14,000. The answer to the problem isn’t more auto-policies.

This is because only a handful of Nigerians can afford brand new cars. In fact, very few Nigerians can afford cars at all. According to 2017 data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), “on the basis of private vehicles only, vehicles per 1000 Nigerians comes to about 24. It is also about 41 Nigerians to one private vehicle– one of the lowest among its emerging market peers.”

One way to look at this problem is that most Nigerians have to pay cash and pay in full for vehicles. Auto-loans and car financing are difficult to come by and where food is competing for people’s paychecks, it is difficult to ask them to put down millions to buy a car. 

It is pretty much the same situation when you look at homeownership and mortgages in Nigeria. These are sectors and situations where access to credit can provide the much-needed quick wins. 

Using credit to improve homeownership 

In developed countries, mortgages allow millions of people to buy and own homes with affordable payments stretched over several years. In Africa, the mortgage market remains thin. 

Here’s data from one publication; “In Uganda, there are an estimated 5,000 mortgages for a population of 41 million while in Tanzania, there are only 3,500 mortgages in a country with a population of 55 million.”

It’s not much better in Nigeria where even the wealthy do not often opt for mortgages. Jason Njoku’s famous thread about trying to secure a mortgage a few years ago is a stark reminder. It means that homeownership rates in Nigeria very low. 

While homeownership in Kenya is 75% and 56% in South Africa, in Nigeria, it is estimated to be around 25%. Ten more homeownership policies will not change this. 

In the end, across many sectors, Nigerians need a way to finance asset acquisition without putting down years of their savings. Why pay N40 million upfront for a house when you can spread the payments over 20 years while using the rest of your money to invest in other ventures?

Without credit, we’re going nowhere

The real game-changer for Nigeria won’t be more policies, but a more conscious drive towards expanding access to credit to every single Nigerian and creating a framework that makes eligibility a right instead of a privilege.

What’s killing financial inclusion in Nigeria?

Financial inclusion in Nigeria falls short because products lack accessibility and affordability, ignoring basic needs like free transactions. Understanding the needs of the poor is key to an effective design.

No scholar worth his salt would denigrate his study in the first line, or on any other line for that matter. However, listen carefully, take what I’m going to say below with a pinch of salt as it’s based on armchair projections.

But then who cares?

We are quite a lot in Nigeria, or so says the official and derivative stats. I really don’t buy into the numbers but then nobody gives two flying horse legs about my opinions. With about 180 million hungry souls crammed within the national border, only about 30 million accounts are there in the 20+ odd banks.

Considering that nobody in Nigeria is faithful to anything, especially to their banks, I know finding unique bank customers could slash the numbers down to about 20M. Just a hunch, don’t quote this for your PhD!

The Central Bank of Nigeria, other NGOs and do-good money bags have tried all they could with financial inclusion but it ain’t just hitting that sweet spot. Banks were corralled into the deal, and we came up with Prepaid Cards and Mobile Wallets. Both had as much success as the Zepellin.

On a quiet Sunday morning, after the rain has done about 3 rounds, much more than middle-aged men can cope with these days, I thought about what could have made all the efforts, the bankers, the CBN, flounder like a pricked balloon.

It was just simple. Financial inclusion designed by rich bankers and their friends in Brioni suits just don’t work.

Why? Because financial inclusion products should be accessible and affordable. Unfortunately, they are not.

This is best underscored by a recent conversation I had with one of my banker friends designing a saving product where artisans and others can pay N100 a day to save about N1,000 using their phones. I was like, what the F? I wouldn’t even do that on a regular account!

Which brings us to why the fancy financial inclusion schemes never work. Most were designed with absolutely no idea of what poor people want. But then ain’t difficult to find out, they want basic and affordable financial products.

They want free cash in/cash out.

They want free balance inquiry.

They want free bill payments.

They really don’t give two rats’ legs about cost of transaction.

Oh my, they don’t keep money in balances because like we all know, you can only save when you can afford to. When you live off less than $1 a day, which 70% of us are anyway (who did the enumeration?) you can’t afford to save. When you earn less than N50K a month and you have mouths hungrier than young birds to feed, you can’t save.

So dear banker, if the poor can’t save, there isn’t going to be any float.

If you don’t get any of these above, you can’t design products for poor people, bottom of the pyramid or financial inclusion.

This isn’t Davos, so get off your high horse dude!

The voodoo of informed predictions

This morning I got a mail from a well-regarded source about the likely outcome of the bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (The MPC is a committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria) meeting coming up later in the day. The source argued that the MPR, LR and CRR would probably be left at 7.5%, 30% and 2% respectively. With a caveat that the prediction should be taken with a pinch of salt and she’s not liable for any calamity that hits anyone who uses the prediction to make decisions. Come on! Even Jim Jones was better than this.

By the way, if you don’t know what these acronyms stand for, don’t bother; they mean absolute nothing, especially to the man on the street. They are some of the jargons we bankers put up to feel very self-important.

It would have been a story if the ratios weren’t changed: I can’t remember if any of the predictions ever made by my source came true. But I’m sure if Harold Camping’s rapture hasn’t taken place before the next MPC, my impeccable source would make another prediction and guess what, my own prediction is that she’s going to be wrong, as usual.

The business world is replete with loads of analysts and self-styled experts but empirical evidence has shown we (too bad, seems I’m one of them) are not better than an army of random monkeys hitting away at the keyboards and a chance Shakespeare classic coming out. The publishing editors are thrilled and the monkeys have been given an advance for 4 more classics. You see, if you deal with a very large solution space (another jargon, another narcissistic comment) like I’m working on for my current project, anyone can get lucky.

The real disaster, of course, is confusing luck with expertise.

If you think I’m joking, read about what McKinsey and Company told AT&T in 1982.

Behavioral finance and the science of voodoo

I just had some argument with a PhD researcher about the value of behavioral models over the up-till-now traditional financial modeling. You see, behavioral finance is a growing field of financial science and came into prominence after the last catastrophic implosion of the global financial market. Obviously some greedy folks went berserk and all the fancy market models developed to understand them were obviously on vacation (read Fama, French, Sharpe, Markowitz, Merton Miller and a bunch of others. I can’t even imagine that some people actually got a Nobel for this type of rubbish. In a world where Obama can get a Nobel for Peace in anticipation of peace, anything can happen!).

From the behavioral finance people’s point of view, financial and capital models are crap and can’t model how the financial world will behave as it is based on what is called the rational model (players will behave according to expectation) but can’t understand the primordial human instincts (greed, fear, ego, etc.) which ultimately always upturn things.

This is actual bone of contention. We both agreed that the current models are capital BS but I believe that the financial and capital behavior can be modeled. What we don’t have now is enough attributes to put into the model to factor things in. Another thing is to redefine what a rational attribute is. Purchasing an equity based on PE ratio is a rational behavior but it doesn’t even rank as much as buying because of fear! Or why would the experts spend so much time wondering that the Weekend Effect is all about?

This is what luxury good purveyors have known for centuries, people don’t buy because a purchase makes sense, they buy for all manners of reasons and that is what we modeler need to figure out.

Can fear be modeled? Yeah! Same for herd behavior, for greed, for revenge, etc. What I dont know is if a smart dude is going to figure it out in a year, decade or century but I can put my bet on 2 decades out there. What do you think we are going to use all those powerful computers to do? Turn them into Precogs while the world reenact Minority Report. So between now and then, I will advice my fancy research to go find another job; behavioral finance career is about to hit a dead end.

Global Africa: Presence or Profitability?

Following the ultimatum that Nigerian banks shore up their capital base if they are to remain in business, several banks have indeed gone over board with each one raising capital in excess of $1billion. Their aim in the long run, having been rescued from the shackles of being a bank in a developing nation, is to become a mega bank with global presence.

With large purses and an increased appetite for international trade and global financing, banks started to look for routes to invest these funds. Routes that will guarantee maximum returns on investment and create a true global presence. It became inadequate to have a good branch network within Nigeria, to remain a Mega bank with enough clout; the bank had to have presence in other countries asides Nigeria.

Early entrants within the banking industry controlled about 60% of the market share and had well established network within Nigeria and most importantly the United Kingdom. This branch network was necessary to help facilitate their international trade. The focus was never on the African axis as these banks were barely able to meet up with customer and service demands in their own home country.

With the consolidation exercise and the creation of bigger bank who have energetic, young and adventurous CEO’s at the helm of affairs, the banking industry was about to witness a phenomenal change. Emphasis was removed from merely being a Nigerian bank offering financial services; it became the case of meeting up with international best practice. Ideas started to flow. It became easy enough since these ideas were backed with the required purchasing power. The banking industry witnessed a significant evolution that changed the face of banking in Nigeria. Top of the range technology was deployed, service standards improve and international trade began to boom. Foreign investors realizing that the return on investment in Nigeria was high began to invest huge sums of money into the banking industry. Hedge funds, public offers, private placements offered excellent investment opportunities for these FDI’s.

Being armed with enough capital and having fully conquered the Nigerian markets, it was time to conquer the African markets. Global Africa was next on the agenda. Which bank was going to be the first to have adequate branch network in Africa. It was time to contest with the likes of Standard chartered Bank in the fight for the African business. After all, there was human capital, technology and the cash to be deployed to the rest of Africa.

The first country to witness the advent of Nigerian Banks become global was Ghana. With loose demands from their Central bank in setting up a financial institution, it was easy to open up branches in Ghana. Now, the whole of West Africa is having a taste of Nigerian banks. The issue is no longer which country to go to; the issue now is “we hope we won’t be the last bank to open up a branch there”

Now the frenzy is on. This brings me to my question. Global Africa is it all about creating a global presence or is it about creating investments that has a higher rate of return? With loose laws and minimum requirements to establish financial institutions in most African countries, creating a chain of banks in Africa has become an easy feat to achieve. Knowing how aggressive bankers are in Nigeria, they are not about to let this opportunity go without thoroughly maximizing it.

Having gone through the rudiments of starting up a new bank in other African countries, the acquisition of banking license, the acquirement of physical and human capital, It becomes obvious that Nigerian banks have more in sight than the mere returns on their investment. The question really is, if all these resources were to be deployed in the setting up a new branch in a viable area in Nigeria, would it achieve a higher rate or return on investment than that of a new deployment in Nigerian’s neighboring countries?